(Editor’s note: This is part of the Bracket Central Series, an inside look at the run-up to the men’s and women’s NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments.)
The men’s NCAA Tournament selection committee released its preview of the top 16 seeds on Saturday, a month out from Selection Sunday. There’s still quite a bit of hoops to be played until then, and therefore plenty that can change, but since the committee started releasing this preview in 2017, it has been a solid predictor: 83 percent of teams included in the top-16 preview have remained among the top four seeds for the official bracket, including 15 of the top 16 in each of the past two years. Also, unlike the College Football Playoff rankings — which get released in full for six weeks and exploited for every possible storyline and TV rating — this is all we get in college basketball ahead of the real deal. We have to mine what we can.
Here were the committee’s top 16 and their records and metrics, as of 12:30 p.m. ET on Saturday.
Top 16 preview
Bubble Watch also happened to have 16 locks (in no particular order) as of Thursday, with 15 of them matching the committee’s picks. I had Creighton; the committee had San Diego State.
Just as important as which teams are in the top 16 is how those teams were seeded and why. Aside from committee chair Charles McClelland going in front of the cameras for some light questioning, we aren’t privy to the actual details of the committee’s decisions. But we can draw our own conclusions based on those decisions.
One thing that jumps out: Don’t get too caught up in the predictive metrics such as NET and KenPom.
(Editor’s note: This is part of the Bracket Central Series, an inside look at the run-up to the men’s and women’s NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments.)
The men’s NCAA Tournament selection committee released its preview of the top 16 seeds on Saturday, a month out from Selection Sunday. There’s still quite a bit of hoops to be played until then, and therefore plenty that can change, but since the committee started releasing this preview in 2017, it has been a solid predictor: 83 percent of teams included in the top-16 preview have remained among the top four seeds for the official bracket, including 15 of the top 16 in each of the past two years. Also, unlike the College Football Playoff rankings — which get released in full for six weeks and exploited for every possible storyline and TV rating — this is all we get in college basketball ahead of the real deal. We have to mine what we can.
Here were the committee’s top 16 and their records and metrics, as of 12:30 p.m. ET on Saturday.
Top 16 preview
Team (Record) | NET/KenPom | SOR | Quad 1 |
---|---|---|---|
1. Purdue (23-2) | 2/2 | 1 | 9-2 |
2. UConn (23-2) | 4/3 | 2 | 8-2 |
3. Houston (21-3) | 1/1 | 3 | 8-3 |
4. Arizona (19-5) | 3/5 | 7 | 7-3 |
5. North Carolina (19-6) | 11/10 | 8 | 6-4 |
6. Tennessee (18-6) | 7/6 | 9 | 4-5 |
7. Marquette (19-5) | 10/11 | 5 | 6-4 |
8. Kansas (18-6) | 16/20 | 4 | 5-4 |
9. Alabama (17-7) | 5/7 | 11 | 3-6 |
10. Baylor (17-6) | 12/13 | 10 | 6-4 |
11. Iowa State (19-5) | 8/9 | 6 | 5-4 |
12. Duke (19-5) | 17/12 | 14 | 5-2 |
13. Auburn (20-5) | 6/4 | 16 | 2-4 |
14. San Diego State (18-6) | 15/19 | 19 | 5-6 |
15. Illinois (18-6) | 13/8 | 13 | 3-5 |
16. Wisconsin (17-8) | 20/17 | 18 | 6-5 |
Bubble Watch also happened to have 16 locks (in no particular order) as of Thursday, with 15 of them matching the committee’s picks. I had Creighton; the committee had San Diego State.
Just as important as which teams are in the top 16 is how those teams were seeded and why. Aside from committee chair Charles McClelland going in front of the cameras for some light questioning, we aren’t privy to the actual details of the committee’s decisions. But we can draw our own conclusions based on those decisions.
One thing that jumps out: Don’t get…
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