Today, we’re adding rookie projections to that growing list of content.
Using the Steamer projections on FanGraphs, here’s a look at the top projected rookie by WAR at each position.
Wells made his MLB debut last September against none other than Justin Verlander — and picked up a line-drive single in his first career at-bat. Although Steamer projects he will post only a .410 slugging percentage, the lefty hitter showed considerable pop in his first taste of the Majors, racking up nine extra-base hits, including four home runs, in his final 11 games. He put up a career .476 slugging in the Minors. He will have to share time with former Platinum Glove winner Jose Trevino, but with Kyle Higashioka now in San Diego, Wells is in line for considerable playing time in the Bronx and possibly a breakout season.
Schanuel has always had an exceptional knack for reaching base. He recorded a .500 or better on-base percentage through three seasons at Florida Atlantic University and during his short time in the Minors. The Angels promoted the 2023 first-round Draft pick after he spent just 22 games in their system, and he kept finding ways to get on. Schanuel posted a .402 OBP, walked more than he struck out, and reached safely in each of his 29 games. That’s tied for the third-longest streak to open a career in AL/NL history, behind Alvin Davis (47 games in 1984) and Truck Hannah (38 in 1918). Schanuel’s projected .363 OBP places him seventh among first basemen, between Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Vinnie Pasquantino. However, after collecting only four extra-base hits in 109 MLB at-bats, he knows that he needs to add more power this year.
2B: Colt Keith, Tigers
118 G, 14 HR, .753 OPS, 106 WRC+, 1.8 WAR
After dealing with injuries throughout his first two pro seasons, Keith stayed healthy for the bulk of 2023 and put his raw power on full display. He slashed .306/.380/.552 in 577 plate appearances between Double-A and Triple-A. He bashed 27 homers, including one that traveled a Statcast-projected 473 feet. He ranked third among all Minor Leaguers in extra-base hits (68) and fifth in total bases (280). The Tigers are very confident Keith’s prodigious pop will translate well at the highest level; they gave him a six-year contract in January, making him just the seventh player with zero days of Major League service time to sign an extension. If Keith can avoid the injury bug, his projection for 14 homers and a .427 slugging might be a little too conservative.
3B: Noelvi Marte, Reds
118 G, 14 HR, .760 OPS, 101 wRC+, 1.7 WAR
Marte gave us a glimpse of his bright future during his 35-game MLB debut last season. It featured three homers, six steals, a .316 average and an .822 OPS. He had a four-hit, three-RBI game on the penultimate day of the regular season and ended the year riding a 16-game hitting streak, the longest by a Reds rookie since 1946. Like Keith, Marte brings 60-grade power, but he complements his strength with a fantastic 29.1 feet per second sprint speed. Those wheels and his stellar 91.3 average exit velocity contributed to Marte’s .295 expected batting average. That tied for 12th among all hitters (min. 50 balls in play). He is projected to bat .267 with 14 dingers and 12 steals.
When will Holliday make it to The Show? Maybe it’s on Opening Day. What position will he play? It could be shortstop or second base. But one thing is for sure: We all want to see the game’s No. 1 prospect performing in the bigs as soon as possible. Holliday advanced through four levels of the Orioles’ system last season as a 19-year old. He batted 323 with a .941 OPS, cementing himself as baseball’s best hitting prospect, according to MLB Pipeline. With a plate approach that’s advanced far beyond his years, Holliday has nearly as many walks (126) as strikeouts (130) in the Minors. That’s helped him register a .442 on-base percentage, and his projected .350 OBP ranks inside the top five at shortstop and inside the top 10 at second base.
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