The closer we get to opening day, the faster the news moves, throwing everything we thought we knew for the previous five months into a blender. It’s so important to keep our heads on a swivel this time of year — not only to avoid drafting Dr. ElAttrache’s newest patient, but to be first on the next man up.
Anticipating how the immediate voids created by breaking news will get filled can make a huge difference in outcomes. Understanding and acting on a new, undetermined value separates the wheat from the chaff in the draft room.
We’ll be attacking the topic from multiple vectors to get you fully briefed on all of the market’s major movers and shakers. Adam Ronis focused on four specific players requiring a closer look, while I took a different path, scrutinizing the past month’s worth of drafts for disparities by section. Good luck leaving us today without sparking a late-round fantasy brush fire somewhere.
(All ADP per NFBC, comparing all drafts between February 15-29 and March 1-19)
Jarred Kelenic, OF, ATL
- NFBC ADP from 2/15-2/29: 202
- NFBC ADP from 3/1-3/19: 228
Any excitement for Kelenic moving to the Braves has been shrinking like Tom Hanks in “Cast Away.” Usually, we don’t care much for the spring stats, but when it costs a player a job, or playing time, it’s a problem. Kelenic appeared to have the every-day job in a great lineup. However, the Braves recently signed Adam Duvall, and he will likely platoon with Kelenic. Even with the strong side of the platoon, Kelenic now has slim margin for error.
This spring, Kelenic is 3-for-42 with no extra base hits and a 12:4 K:BB ratio. The sixth overall pick in 2018 by the Mets hasn’t lived up to lofty expectations. In 372 at-bats with the Mariners last season, Kelenic slashed .253/.327/.419 with 44 runs, 11 home runs, 49 RBIs, 13 stolen bases and a 31.7% strikeout rate. There’s a lot of swing and miss with Kelenic, although he improved his hard-hit rate to 45.5% last season.
There are reports Kelenic is very hard on himself and his frustration is often visible on the field. He kicked a water cooler after a strikeout last season and suffered a fractured foot. The change of scenery, especially moving to a great team, often helps, but Kelenic has big risk. I’ll draft other players in his range, unless he falls even further. — Adam Ronis
Ryan Weathers, P, MIA
- NFBC ADP from 2/15-2/29: 600
- NFBC ADP from 3/1-3/19: 433
Weathers was going very late in drafts a few weeks ago because the path to a starting rotation spot looked bleak with several starters in front of him. Injuries are piling up for the Marlins, and Weathers is likely going to begin the season as a starter. Eury Perez has an elbow injury, Edward Cabrera has a shoulder impingement, and Braxton Garrett is behind with a shoulder injury.
Weathers, the seventh overall pick in 2018 by the Padres, has looked great in the spring. Over 18 innings, the left-hander has a 21:4 K:BB ratio with a 3.00 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. The fastball has been in the high-90s. Weathers was a top prospect a few years ago and is only 24. He’s worth taking in the final rounds of the draft to see if it carries over into the regular season. — Ronis
Jackson Merrill , SS, SD
- NFBC ADP from 2/15-2/29: 377
- NFBC ADP from 3/1-3/19: 306
The rise for Merrill is obvious since he will be on the opening day roster. He will play center field for the Padres and will gain outfield eligibility soon. Merrill turns 21 in April and didn’t play in Triple-A. He spent last season between High-A and Double-A. In 187 at-bats at Double-A, Merrill slashed .273/.338/.444 with 26 runs, five home runs, 31 RBIs and five stolen bases. He’s a good contact hitter with a 11.8% strikeout rate at Double-A and an 8.5% walk rate. He also started to hit the ball in the air more when he got to Double-A. Merrill is slated to hit at the bottom of the lineup, but could get 15 home runs and 10 stolen bases. At the current ADP, he’s worth taking. — Ronis
Henry…
This article was originally published by a theathletic.com . Read the Original article here. .