Experts project that northern Gaza will face famine conditions as soon as this month, and that half of the enclave’s population will suffer deadly levels of hunger, according to a new report from the global authority that has classified food security crises for decades.
The report, released Monday by the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification global initiative, projected that famine is “imminent” for the 300,000 Palestinian civilians in northern Gaza, where such conditions will develop by the end of May. And by mid-July, as many as 1.1 million people in Gaza could face what the group characterized as the worst stage of hunger: an “extreme lack of food,” and severe levels of starvation, death, destitution and acute malnutrition.
Bar chart shows the proportion of Gaza’s northern governorates and southern governorates that are facing different levels of food insecurity, ranging from stressed (level 2) to famine (level 5).
Food insecurity levels by region
Deir al-Balah and Khan Younis
Food insecurity levels by region
Deir al-Balah and Khan Younis
The group — set up in 2004 by U.N. agencies and international relief groups, and known as the I.P.C. — has classified a famine only twice: in 2011, in parts of Somalia, and in 2017, in parts of South Sudan. In those countries, relatively small proportions of the population met the group’s criteria for famine conditions. In Gaza, the residents of the critically threatened north make up more than 13 percent of the population.
According to the I.P.C., a famine occurs when three conditions are met: at least 20 percent of households have an extreme lack of food; at least 30 percent of children suffer from acute malnutrition; and at least two adults, or four children, for every 10,000 people die daily from starvation or from disease linked to malnutrition. (Although I.P.C. experts conduct and review the analysis necessary to classify a famine, only government and top U.N. officials can officially make an official declaration.)
The report noted that the first condition had already been met, and the second most likely has been reached. Collecting data on the third, malnutrition-linked deaths, is immensely difficult in a war zone, the group has said. The death rate among children appeared higher than for adults, it added, but said it was “impossible to ascertain.”
At least 27 people, including 23 children, have died of malnutrition, dehydration and lack of baby formula, according to the Gazan Health Ministry.
Shimon Freedman, a spokesman for the Israeli agency that oversees policy for the Palestinian territories, COGAT, reiterated on Monday Israel’s position that it “places no limit on the aid that can enter the Gaza Strip.”
And Eylon Levy, an Israeli government spokesman, called the report an “out-of-date picture” that “does not take into account the latest developments on the ground,” including major humanitarian initiatives last week. He also said Israel is taking “proactive measures” to expand aid delivery in northern Gaza.
Last week, Israel allowed a small World Food Program convoy to deliver food to northern Gaza for the first time since Feb. 20. After the report was released, the organization’s chief economist, Arif Husain, warned that “time is running out” for many Gazans. “This is why children are dying,” he said. “If we don’t get in there they won’t be dying in 20 or 30s, they will be dying in hundreds and thousands.”
Alex de Waal, an expert on humanitarian crises who has written a book about mass starvation, said the situation in Gaza was “unprecedented.”
“None of us who’ve worked in this field have ever seen anything like this,” he said. “It is absolutely shocking.”
The I.P.C. classifies acute food insecurity in five phases, ranging…
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