The Washington Capitals’ playoff chances are looking real good after Tuesday’s win over their biggest challenger, the Detroit Red Wings. The Caps still need to defend their second wild-card spot, but they could also start biting at the heels of the Philadelphia Flyers, who are 4-4-2 in their last ten games.
I bet a lot of you by now have already consulted the standings, but let’s take an official look together.
Especially at this time of year, it’s important to look at points percentage as much as raw point totals. The Caps have 81 points in 71 games, so they trail – technically – the Flyers, who have 82 points in 73 games. But Philly has a lower points percentage, so to my way of thinking the Caps are ahead. We’ll see in a moment that I’m not alone in thinking that way.
Looking downward, the Capitals have a two-point lead on the Wings and one extra game left to play. That’s a narrow but real advantage, though I suspect the teams’ final meeting on April 9 will still carry weight. The Wings will play the Hurricanes on Thursday night. That’ll be a tough one for them.
Wednesday will be a quiet night in the NHL with just two games, and neither will have any impact on Loffs Watch.
Now for what the models think.
Update, 10 AM: Edited to add the Athletic’s prediction
The Caps are now favored to make the postseason by a good bit. They’ve been rocketing up over the last couple weeks, as HockeyViz’s visualization below shows us. The Caps are the dark red line in the third column (the Metro division); higher means more likely to make the playoffs.
No team has climbed as much as Washington – or even close. (Admittedly, many teams by now are virtual or actual locks one way or the other.) The Caps are more likely to make the playoffs than the Flyers, though it’s very tight. I bet you know this by now, but those two teams will meet on the final day of the regular season. Unless something goes very wrong, that game will matter.
I have real concerns about how the Caps are winning lately, but that’s outside the mission statement of Loffs Watch. Loffs Watch is just about watching those loffs, and we’ve got a snapshot coming up this weekend.
Loffs Watch Theme Song of the Day
Here ends Loffs Watch. The team behind Loffs Watch has the day off on Thursday, but we will be back on Friday with more Loffs Watch.
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