WASHINGTON — President Joe Biden’s top aides bluntly told lawmakers in a private meeting on Wednesday that if Congress fails to authorize additional military aid for Ukraine in the coming days, Russia could win the war in a matter of weeks — months at best, according to two people familiar with the meeting.
National security adviser Jake Sullivan and the Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines told the lawmakers that Ukraine will run out of certain air defense and artillery capabilities in the coming weeks, according to the people familiar with the meeting.
The grim assessment, which one White House official described as “incredibly stark,” was delivered as the future of Ukraine aid has never been more uncertain. It also comes as White House officials are increasingly alarmed at the prospect of Biden failing to follow through with his promise that the U.S. will be there for Kyiv “as long as it takes.”
In Wednesday’s meeting at the White House, Sullivan and Haines gave the top congressional leaders a classified time frame for when Ukraine’s key military resources will be significantly depleted, and a detailed assessment of the current dynamics on the battlefield, the two people familiar with the meeting said.
Sullivan emphasized that Ukraine’s position would grow more difficult over the course of the year, a White House official said, by offering specific date ranges of when Ukraine will run low on various capabilities in the short-term.
The president’s aides told the lawmakers that the lack of aid would affect far more than Ukraine and could prompt other countries that rely on the U.S., including Japan and South Korea, to rethink their alliances, according to the people familiar with the meeting. Their message, these people said, was that a Russian victory simply because the U.S. couldn’t come through “will reverberate around the world.”
The bipartisan group of congressional leaders at the meeting agreed that providing aid to Ukraine is a national security priority, but acknowledged that there are disagreements about how to proceed legislatively, these people said.
Ukraine aid, which has been held up in Congress for months, is part of legislation that also provides funding for Israel, Taiwan and U.S. border security. In October, Biden requested an additional $60 billion in military aid for Ukraine, some of which would be used to replenish U.S. stockpiles. Congress has previously authorized about $75 billion in Ukraine aid.
For weeks last fall, White House officials expressed confidence that Congress would pass more aid, noting that the majority of Republicans and Democrats supported it. But resistance from some congressional Republicans has stalled the legislation, and negotiations by a bipartisan trio in the Senate over policy changes at the southern border, a top priority for Republicans, have been rocky.
Though outstanding issues on the border portion of the bill remain, Senate leaders from both parties expressed optimism this week that the upper chamber could soon take up the legislation. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer told reporters after the White House meeting that he puts chances of a deal at “more than half,” and later said they could begin processing the legislation as early as next week.
The legislation’s fate in the House is far more uncertain.
Biden has warned for months, including in an Oval Office address to the nation, that a lack of new aid would be dire for Ukraine and the broader world order. The White House said last month that it had provided Ukraine with the last of available U.S. funds, a pronouncement that drew skepticism from some lawmakers, including even those who support Ukraine aid.
Sullivan and Haines predicted overall that, without more U.S. military aid, Ukrainian forces could only continue fighting the Russians for weeks, maybe months, according to the people familiar with the meeting. Russian President Vladimir Putin is making…
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