In many areas of life, there’s nothing like the burden that gets removed when you knock your first one off the board. But a few big-name MLB hitters are still searching for that moment.
Entering play on Friday, there are 46 players with at least 50 plate appearances and no home runs on the season. Some of them are names you might expect, who aren’t particularly known to be power hitters — think Luis Arraez or Tim Anderson. But many of them are established big bats who are still waiting to get on the board in the dinger column.
All it takes is one swing to change that — as Ronald Acuña Jr. showed on Wednesday (even though he admittedly didn’t think the ball was going out when he hit it). Below, we break down nine of the most notable players who have yet to touch ‘em all this year, and what needs to change for their droughts to end.
Power profile: The transcendent young outfielder is the most surprising name to find himself on this list. Rodríguez has been an All-Star and Silver Slugger Award winner in each of his two prior MLB seasons, during which he hit a combined 60 home runs. 32 of those dingers came last season, when he also ranked 22nd in MLB with 57 barrels.
Closest call of 2024: The farthest Rodríguez has hit a ball this season was a 384-foot double to center field on April 17 off Cincinnati’s Andrew Abbott. However, even this ball would not have been a home run in any of the 30 MLB ballparks.
Let it fly: A lot has gone wrong for Rodríguez this season beyond a dearth of the long ball. For example, his OPS is currently .530, far off the .818 value he had a year ago. But as it pertains to seeking home runs specifically, a useful area of adjustment could be as simple as taking more hacks. He’s swung at 50.5% of pitches this season, compared to 53.9% a year ago. The increased selectiveness hasn’t led to higher efficiency, though, as his 33.8% whiff rate is well ahead of last year’s 28.2%.
Power profile: Bregman’s peak as a home run hitter came in the 2019 season, when he had 41 homers en route to finishing second in AL MVP voting. But he’s still had at least 23 dingers in each of the past four seasons in which he played 100-plus games, most recently including 25 in 2023.
Closest call of 2024: On April 10, Bregman got all of an outside fastball from Seth Lugo, but the 406-foot shot hit the center-field wall in Kansas City before staying in for a double. It would’ve been a home run in 24 out of 30 MLB ballparks.
Let it fly: Bregman’s xSLG has dipped to a career-low .352 this season, which ranks in the 32nd percentile of MLB. What’s the solution? Avoiding getting under the ball would be a good start. In each of his first eight seasons, his average launch angle was somewhere in the mid-high teens. This year, it’s a career-high 23.6 degrees. As a result, his “sweet-spot rate” is a career-low 27.3%, causing his offensive statistics to take a steep downturn.
Power profile: Castellanos has hit at least 23 home runs in five of the past six full 162-game seasons, including a career-high 34 in 2021 with the Reds and 29 last year with the Phillies. He also had 46 barrels last season, tied for 37th-most in MLB.
Closest call of 2024: Castellanos’ longest hit of the season was also his most clutch one, as he knocked in Whit Merrifield for a walk-off single against the Pirates with a 361-foot liner to center field on April 13. This would not have been a home run in any MLB ballpark, though (and it’s worth noting that there’s a strong chance it would’ve been caught if the outfield was playing at normal depth).
Let it fly: Castellanos has struggled in a multitude of ways this season. But for the 32-year-old to turn his season around and become the player that helped the Phillies to strong playoff runs in the past two seasons, fixing his launch angle will be useful, as he’s been “under” the ball on 42.0% of batted balls this season, compared to 24.2% in 2023. Plate discipline…
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