Seoul, South Korea
CNN
—
Colonization, bloodshed, war crimes, occupation, controversial military bases. These are all issues intertwined in the collective history of the United States, Japan and the Philippines.
But when the leaders of the three countries sit down at the White House on Thursday, a key topic will be a much more present-day worry that binds their relationship – a common concern over China.
“The perceived threat of China has really driven these three together,” said James D.J. Brown, associate professor of political science at Temple University in Tokyo, ahead of this week’s summit between US President Joe Biden, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.
But it is a possible conflict over Taiwan – the democratically ruled island that China’s Chinese Communist Party (CCP) views as part of its territory, despite having never controlled it – that dominates strategic thinking.
Chinese leader Xi Jinping has vowed to bring Taiwan under Beijing’s control and has not renounced the use of force to do so.
The Taiwan Relations Act obligates Washington to provide weaponry for the island’s defense, and Biden has repeatedly suggested he would use US military personnel to defend it in the event of a Chinese invasion (though White House officials have said the US policy to leave that question ambiguous has not changed).
Both the Philippines and Japan are US defense treaty allies, and the US military retains permanent bases in Japan and has base rights in the Philippines.
That threat is manifested in three key areas – Taiwan, the South China Sea and the Japanese-controlled Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea, analysts say.
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In the event of conflict, China could not ignore either with less than a few hundred kilometers of water separating both the Philippines and Japan from Taiwan, analysts say.
“If you’re China, you cannot invade Taiwan, without dealing with the Philippines first, or dealing with the Japanese bases as well,” said Micah Jeiel Perez, an assistant professor at the University of the Philippines Diliman.
Both Marcos and Kishida have made plain that peace in Taiwan is essential to their national security.
“Should there in fact be conflict in that area … it’s very hard to imagine a scenario where the Philippines will not somehow get involved,” Marcos told Nikkei Asia in an interview last year.
Japanese officials have previously pointed out that 90% of their country’s energy needs are imported via the water around Taiwan, tying Japan’s economic stability to Taipei’s autonomy.
Those sea lanes extend into the South China Sea, which gives Japan a vested interest in keeping it part of a “free and open Indo-Pacific,” a term coined by former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe that has become a mantra for US military presence in the region.
“Japan and other parts of the world actually are very much dependent on maritime traffic that passes through the South China Sea,” said Ricardo Jose, also a professor at the University of the Philippines.
“In Japan’s case, it is very strategic. It’s a strategic necessity that they…
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