Welcome to Scott Wheeler’s 2024 rankings of every NHL organization’s prospects. You can find the complete ranking and more information on the criteria here, as we count down daily from No. 32 to No. 1. The series, which includes in-depth evaluations and insight from sources on nearly 500 prospects, runs from Jan. 30 to Feb. 29.
The Edmonton Oilers’ pool is beginning to bear the brunt of the team’s push to contend. They’ve made just one draft’s worth of picks in the last two drafts and of the seven selections they did make, only two were in the draft’s first four rounds, the least of any team in the league during that span. One of those two picks, Reid Schaefer, has already been traded as well. Add in the prospects they do have not taking the kind of steps you would have hoped for and it’s one of the weaker groups in the league.
There are still some decent young players coming — players who may be able to contribute during this window — but their pool isn’t going to produce top-of-the-lineup types. With Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway set to age out and/or graduate to the NHL, their ranking could continue to slide if they don’t hang onto their first- and second-round picks in 2024 as well (they’ve already dealt their picks in Rounds 3 and 4). I considered ranking them a little lower this year, even.
2023 prospect pool rank: No. 21 (change: -4)
1. Dylan Holloway, C/LW, 22 (Edmonton Oilers/Bakersfield Condors)
Were it not for injuries (including two wrist surgeries), Holloway would probably be a little more established in the NHL by now and not featured on this list.
He’s a fast, powerful, physical, forechecking presence who I believe has a third-line floor and enough skill to push into a complementary top-six scorer and go-getter. He’s known as an explosive skater who is normally the most athletic player on the ice. But he also has quick-twitch hands that keep up with his feet and a powerful wrist shot release that helps him manufacture offence both off the rush and cutting off the wall to the slot to power past checks and get to dangerous spots to create chances. I’m still of the belief he’s better suited for the wing than centre, but his versatility at both positions doesn’t hurt either. He stays in every battle, supports play, plays hard and can beat defenders to his spots. But he has always been much more than that, too, and is the kind of player who is more impactful in practical on ice than his production suggests (which has also always been strong).
He’s going to give future lines a different look and provide value and punch in all three zones on both special teams. I still see a 50-something point ceiling in the prime of his career if he can stay healthy. He’s got too much to work with not to establish himself in the very near future.
2. Xavier Bourgault, LW/RW, 21 (Bakersfield Condors)
Though the numbers haven’t come in the AHL yet (Bourgault was actually one of a poor Bakersfield team’s most productive players as a rookie last year but has hit a bit of a wall this season), I still believe Bourgault will figure it out. He was one of the QMJHL’s best forwards two years ago when I was consistently impressed by him in double-digit live viewings split between three Hockey Canada events and the Memorial Cup.
Though his late-October birthday was always a factor in contextualizing his three standout seasons in junior, Bourgault’s tools almost all grade out highly. He does a great job improvising under pressure to slide pucks around defenders, switch from a two-hand carry to a one-hand carry or pick up his pace. His handles and edges as he adjusts to pressure both look easy (he was one of the better stickhandlers in the QMJHL as well). He has developed into a quick skater in straight lines. I like his change of direction with the puck. And his game has deception, with little stutters in his release that force the goalie down early and fake passes that force…
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