With Spring Training a matter of days away for most clubs (and already underway for the Dodgers and Padres), the time of year during which teams begin to focus on extending their players is nearly upon us. A handful of teams have gotten a head start on extension season already as the Tigers signed top infield prospect Colt Keith to a pre-debut extension, the Astros locked up franchise face Jose Altuve for an additional five seasons, and the Royals committed more than $288MM to Bobby Witt Jr.in recent weeks.
As noted by MASN’s Mark Zuckerman, one club that has generally eschewed extensions for its players in recent years is the Nationals. Despite a pipeline of stars that included the likes of Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Max Scherzer, and Juan Soto over the past decade, the club only managed to extend one player from that era of regular playoff contention: right-hander Stephen Strasburg. With that being said, Zuckerman does point out that the club may be on the verge of changing its reputation for rarely extending players. Catcher Keibert Ruiz signed a $50MM extension with the club last spring that could keep him in D.C. through the 2032 season, and as Washington hopes to take another step towards contention Zuckerman argues the club ought to consider a similar deal for shortstop CJ Abrams.
Abrams, 23, is perhaps best known as the former top Padres prospect who headlined the blockbuster deal that sent Juan Soto from D.C. to San Diego at the 2022 trade deadline. Prior to the 2022 campaign, Abrams was a consensus top 10 prospect in the sport. While the then-21-year-old struggled in his first taste of big league action, slashing just .232/.285/.320 in 46 games in the majors prior to the trade, the youngster’s 80-grade speed, plus hit tool and ability to stick at shortstop were enough (alongside multiple other top prospects) to convince the Nationals to part with a generational hitter entering his prime.
Since donning a Nationals uniform for the first time on August 15 of that year, Abrams has largely held his own but not quite reached the tantalizing potential scouts saw in him during his prospect days. Across 195 games with the club, Abrams has posted a .248/.295/.393 slash line that comes in as a touch below average by measure of wRC+ alongside defense at shortstop that Statcast’s Outs Above Average grades as well below average with a -15 figure, though Fielding Bible’s Defensive Runs Saves paints a slightly rosier picture with a roughly scratch -1 figure.
Difficult as the start to Abrams’s big league career has been, it’s worth noting that he’s steadily improved as his time in the majors has gone on. Over the youngster’s final 88 games last season, Abrams slashed .265/.325/.442 with 33 extra base hits in 381 trips to the plate. That performance at the plate was good for an above-average wRC+ of 105, which when combined with an astonishing 41 stolen bases in 43 attempts over that time span made Abrams a quality offensive contributor out of the leadoff spot for the Nationals. Abrams’s defense at shortstop enjoyed some level of improvement during the 2023 campaign, as well: the 22-year-old posted a +4 DRS last year, a figure that put him in the same conversation as regulars at the position such as Bo Bichette and Javier Baez in terms of glove work.
Given his minimal track record at the big league level, an extension for Abrams comes with plenty of risk. At the same time, Witt’s extension in Kansas City earlier this offseason showcased how pricey even pre-arbitration extensions can become after young talents establish themselves at the big league level. The potential savings in the event that Abrams breaks out and reaches his ceiling is considerable enough to make the prospect of an extension one that’s at least worth considering for Washington. As a young, talented infielder who has shown flashes of success but struggled with consistency over the course of his first service year in the majors, one…
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