Welcome to the offseason, Lakers, Suns and Heat. Glad to see you and all, but, uh … you’re a little early, aren’t you? We just started setting up chairs a few minutes ago, and the caterers haven’t even arrived yet. I mean, the Timberwolves haven’t even shown up yet, and they’re usually the first ones here. I’d been led to believe y’all weren’t coming until at least Memorial Day.
I kid a little because, in truth, the disappointing seasons by the Lakers, Suns and Heat weren’t that hard to imagine heading into the season, given the age and roster questions faced by each. Nonetheless, each came into October with much higher internal aspirations for this season based on the 2023 playoffs … and then combined to win a total of two measly playoff games.
The Heat played in the NBA Finals last year; the Lakers made the Western Conference finals and the Suns gave eventual champ Denver its toughest playoff test, in the second round. All had visions of realistic title contention this season, despite what the Nuggets did to them; in the end, none won 50 games or achieved a top-four seed, the minimum ante for being taken seriously in April. And unlike a year ago, the Lakers and Heat couldn’t offset their meh regular seasons with playoff upsets.
To varying degrees, all three teams now face unsettling questions about their futures. To wit: What do you do when you go all-in to be a contender and then don’t contend? The Lakers, Suns and Heat each did that for teams that ended up not being particularly good. All three went into the luxury tax, and all three are down multiple future first-round draft picks.
I have some bad news: It’s going to be difficult for any of them to get back into realistic contention from here, yet plausible rebuild strategies don’t really seem workable either, given the future picks owed. Thus, the scary part is that each team’s best move might be to double down on its bets even further, even if none are playing a great hand. But at what point do you take your money off the table (what’s left of it, anyway) and move on?
Before my analogy turns into a Kenny Rogers ballad, let’s drill down on each of the three further. I’ll take them one by one, starting with the most dire situation and progressing to the most optimistic (or, maybe … least pessimistic?) one.
Suns
Mat Ishbia is shattering all kinds of records for Impulsive New Owner Doing Stuff and Lighting the Next Decade on Fire. It’s hard to believe Phoenix’s new boss took over in February 2023; he had a good but flawed team built around Devin Booker, Chris Paul, Mikal Bridges, Deandre Ayton and Cameron Johnson that had no future draft pick obligations.
All he’s done since then is trade four unprotected first-round picks, four unprotected pick swaps, three swaps of the swaps and nine second-round picks, all in an effort to turn a second-tier contender into a champion. Other than Booker, the only roster player left from when Ishbia took over is Josh Okogie.
Let’s just say it didn’t go as hoped. The Suns used every available asset at their disposal and went $25 million into the luxury tax, and in the savage West, their reward was zero playoff wins. Building around a Booker-Bridges-Ayton-Johnson core and some depth guys wasn’t likely to yield championship parades — but it wasn’t going to lead to this either. Phoenix is screwed, a non-contender that might not even make the playoffs in next year’s loaded West, but one with no chance to rebuild effectively until the 2030s. The 2030s.
GO DEEPER
A Suns sweep and what’s next: Frank Vogel’s status, Durant’s discomfort and more
So, uh … now what? It’s not like the Suns are terrible — they just won 49 games and will probably have two players make All-NBA — but going forward, they are spitting into a vicious headwind. Kevin Durant turns 36 in September, while Bradley Beal turns 31 in June and might have the worst contract in the league; aside from Booker and Durant, the…
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