It doesn’t matter how many bargain players a team has locked up or how well it avoids bad contracts, every NHL contender is eventually going to hit a salary-cap crunch.
Teams forecast their cap situations well in advance. It allows them to map out their precise contention window, which dictates how they might approach the trade deadline.
In this article, we’ll be analyzing 11 teams (plus a bonus five teams) that will be facing offseason cap crunches. We’re doing this research on the assumption of an $87.5 million cap for 2024-25, which would be a $4 million increase.
It’s important to clarify that a team with limited space isn’t necessarily screwed or in a bad/mismanaged cap scenario. Most of these teams are well-managed contenders grappling with an abundance of good players who need raises — the point of this piece is to highlight teams that will need to be nimble and creative with their finances, not who’s in the “worst” position.
Most pressing scenarios
Teams likely to lose quality players because of rising cap costs
Toronto Maple Leafs
Projected cap space: $21.9 million
Notable UFAs unsigned: Tyler Bertuzzi, Max Domi, TJ Brodie, Mark Giordano, Ilya Samsonov
Notable RFAs unsigned: Nick Robertson, Noah Gregor, Timothy Liljegren
Dead cap space: N/A
The Maple Leafs took care of business early by extending two of their stars on expiring contracts. But with about $24.8 million in cap space dedicated to just Auston Matthews and William Nylander, management is going to have to be a lot more careful with spending around those core players. While John Tavares’ contract comes off the books in 2025, so does Mitch Marner’s.
Toronto is going to have to get creative with player signings, or replacements for outgoing UFAs. Brodie probably isn’t in for a raise at 33 years old, which could keep him with the Leafs. But Bertuzzi may be, after signing a one-year deal to prove himself. That may take him out of the equation in Toronto entirely, especially if he’s looking for anything with term — unless cuts are made to make him fit.
And if management wants to invest in a stable goaltender to share the net with Joseph Woll, that could be another rising cost if a replacement comes in above Samsonov’s expiring $3.6 million cap hit.
That stresses why management cannot afford to overspend on depth pieces like last year. The Leafs are going to be strained enough and be forced to make tough decisions, so there’s no reason to add any extra hurdles in their path.
Florida Panthers
Projected cap space: $28 million
Notable UFAs unsigned: Sam Reinhart, Brandon Montour, Gustav Forsling, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Dmitry Kulikov, Nick Cousins, Anthony Stolarz, Kevin Stenlund
Notable RFAs unsigned: Anton Lundell, Josh Mahura
Dead cap space: Keith Yandle buyout ($1.2 million)
Colleague Pierre LeBrun wrote that Reinhart is deeply motivated to stay with the Panthers and added that his extension would probably need to fall under Matthew Tkachuk’s $9.5 million cap hit.
If we assume an extension in the $9 million range, the Panthers would be left with roughly $19 million with only 10 skaters (eight forwards, two defensemen) plus Sergei Bobrovsky and Spencer Knight signed.
The Panthers probably won’t be able to bring all of their defensemen back. Forsling, currently on a sweetheart $2.66 million cap hit, has established himself as a top pair defender. Montour, on a $3.5 million ticket, is a year removed from scoring 73 points, although he’s having a down year now. Ekman-Larsson and Kulikov are expiring further down the lineup, too. The Panthers also have to account for Lundell coming off his entry-level contract as an RFA.
Florida has to be especially careful about handing out expensive long-term contracts because Carter Verhaeghe, who’s scoring at a 43-goal, 82-point pace, is a UFA in 2025, and in need of a huge raise on his $4.16 million cap hit.
Vegas Golden Knights
Projected cap space: $18.2…
This article was originally published by a theathletic.com . Read the Original article here. .