At first glance, Micheal Penix Jr. looks like a sure-fire first-round quarterback. He has experience, gaudy statistics, size, arm talent, played in a pro-style-ish offense and he has won some big games, leading Washington to the national championship game.
These are all boxes that scouts want checked for quarterback prospects, but some red flags appear after closer examination on the field and off of it (not behavioral). After transferring from Indiana, in his two seasons at Washington, he passed for 9,544 yards, 67 touchdowns and 19 interceptions.
What will worry scouts is his age and medical history. Penix turns 24 in May and he has had six years playing college football, so there will inevitably be questions about how much room he has left to grow. At Indiana, he tore his right ACL twice and has had serious injuries to both his shoulders. NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reported that Penix got “positive medical news” at the combine. If that means teams feel good about his health moving forward, Penix cleared a major hurdle and teams can focus on his film, which is spectacular, but like any prospect, it comes with some concern.
Penix throws a beautiful deep ball with consistently good placement. His deep ball changed the course of the 2023 college season and was one of the primary reasons Washington had the magical season it did. He had three receivers who will play on Sunday, including Rome Odunze, who could be a top-10 pick, and an offensive coordinator in Ryan Grubb who called deep shots at an unrelenting pace.
Grubb helped Odunze get one-on-ones with formation, motions and route concepts, and Penix did his part by finding the one-on-ones, looking off defenders, being aggressive and putting the ball in spots Odunze could make plays. Odunze was a big part of why Penix was so productive, but at the same time, he had everything a No. 1 receiver could ask for. Penix could throw the deep ball with touch and was adept at throwing the back shoulder as well.
This back-shoulder throw against Oregon State was one of the best of the season. Odunze ran a slot fade on the opposite hash. Penix looked off the safety before looking to Odunze. When he looked to Odunze, he saw the corner was on top of Odunze with physical coverage, so he launched a perfect back-shoulder pass that helped Odunze create separation at the catch point. Despite leading all qualifying passers in deep pass attempts (throws over 20 yards), Penix finished eighth in adjusted completion percentage (47 percent), which accounts for drops. Though some may knock Penix for playing with a lot of talent around him, he did his part by making a lot of high-difficulty throws.
One of my favorite traits to look for when evaluating quarterbacks is controlled aggressiveness. You want your quarterback to hunt for opportunities downfield but take educated chances. Penix does just that. Despite averaging 10.7 air yards per target, his turnover-worthy play percentage was only 2 percent (fifth best among qualifying passers). He took chances but didn’t put the ball in unnecessary danger.
On this throw against Oregon, he wanted to hit a deep crosser. The defense dropped deep, but the “hook” defender responsible for covering the crossers was a linebacker who had to flip his head and hips around to cover it. The depth of the dropper might dissuade a lot of quarterbacks from attempting the pass, but Penix knew it would be difficult to cover if he led his receiver, which he did perfectly. Penix’s film is littered with these types of educated aggressive throws.
However, a concern that stems from all of Washington’s shot plays is that Penix wasn’t asked to get through his progressions a lot. Oftentimes, he knew when he had a shot to throw or he was looking off to get another receiver open, or he would just go from one to two and sometimes a checkdown. In the NFL, he’ll be asked to eat his vegetables and attack short to intermediate more, and those plays require him to get…
This article was originally published by a theathletic.com . Read the Original article here. .