The calendar recently flipped to 2024, and with that comes a clean slate and a fresh opportunity for Major League teams. After all, even for those that struggled through a disappointing 2023, one year can make a ton of difference.
Here’s one piece of evidence: A year ago, nine clubs pulled off an improvement of at least 10 wins from 2022 (with two more finishing at plus-nine). That group of double-digit increases included a wide variety of teams:
The most improved teams were coming off anywhere from 55 wins (Nationals) to 86 wins (Rays) and jumped to anywhere from 71 (Nats) to 101 (Orioles). The gains ranged from plus-10 (D-backs) to plus-22 (Rangers).
So who is most likely to follow that lead and raise their win total by double digits in 2024? It could be a good team ascending to greatness, a rebuilding club digging up from the basement or anywhere in between. (Though, obviously, the lower the 2023 win total, the greater the opportunity for improvement.)
We asked seven MLB.com writers to make their picks, and here are the results:
Yankees
2023 record: 82-80
Why they’ll be better: Let’s start with the big reason: Aaron Judge played only 106 games last year … and he still hit 37 home runs. With a full, healthy season from Judge, we know the MVP-level numbers he’s capable of putting up. And with generational talent Juan Soto in tow, too? It should be quite an offensive output in the Bronx. To say this team will win at least 92 games feels quite fair, considering they won 82 last year despite numerous injuries. Carlos Rodón will be healthy, too, alongside reigning AL Cy Young Award winner Gerrit Cole.
Biggest obstacle: There’s always a need for more pitching, even after the addition of Marcus Stroman. Depth would certainly help. And, of course, health is never a given. While the impact players who were injured in 2023 should be good to go, we unfortunately can’t know what will happen over the course of 162 games in ‘24. — Sarah Langs
Why they’ll be better: This might be an ambitious pick, considering the Reds already improved by 20 wins from 2022 to ‘23, but have you seen all of the emerging young talent this team already has in the Majors? Position players Elly De La Cruz (22 years old), Matt McLain (24), Christian Encarnacion-Strand (24) and Noelvi Marte (22) each debuted last season, as did pitcher Andrew Abbott (24) — and they all made significant contributions to Cincinnati’s turnaround. However, McLain was the only one of the five who appeared with the Reds before June, and even he played only 89 games last year.
With the continued development of all of those players at the big league level, plus healthier seasons from pitchers Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo, it’s not hard to imagine the Reds making another leap in 2024. That’s before you even get into the under-the-radar moves the team has made on the free-agent market this offseason, signing Jeimer Candelario, Frankie Montas, Nick Martinez, Emilio Pagán and Brent Suter.
Biggest obstacle: Their starting pitching. The Reds’ rotation has plenty of potential, but the team doesn’t have a proven ace or anyone with a track record as a durable workhorse in the Majors. Of their top six projected starting options, Montas is the only one who has a 30-start season on his résumé, and he’s coming off a lost season following right shoulder surgery. Greene is perhaps the Cincinnati starter with the best chance of developing into a frontline arm, given his blazing fastball and plus slider, but he needs to show better command and durability. — Thomas Harrigan
Royals
2023 record: 56-106
Why they’ll be better: This is an easy pick, just because there is so much room for improvement. But it’s not just that. Even last year, the Royals’ Pythagorean record – based on run differential – was eight games better than their actual record. Other estimates of true performance had it closer to 10 games better. So even without actually…
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