Well, that was a hell of a first day, right? Once again, our model caught things that others didn’t, especially regarding the Oakland vs. Kentucky game. Slingshot gave the Golden Grizzlies more than a 19 percent chance of winning, compared to just the 12 percent odds that the moneyline implied. And wouldn’t you know it: The game played out just as we said it might.
But we don’t get to analyze another potential Oakland upset because they face 11th-seeded NC State in a game that doesn’t qualify for Bracket Breakers status (no five-seed difference). The Wolfpack’s upset of Texas Tech was the third-likeliest on our board. And now we’re guaranteed a double-digit seed will advance to the Sweet 16.
Could we get more? Well, check out the upset projections for Saturday’s second-round games.
Odds are from BetMGM. For more Underdogs, listen to Peter and Jordan’s podcast. For all our March Madness coverage, check out our content hub.
No. 3 Creighton Bluejays vs. No. 11 Oregon Ducks
Upset Chance: 35 percent
Spread: Creighton favored by 5.5 points
Just like Mom always used to say, if you take an 11 to beat a 6, you’ve got to at least consider taking it to beat the 3, too. Here’s why: NCAA tournament upsets depend just as much on the vulnerability of favorites as the gumption of longshots, and once an underdog gets in, it might just face two weak Goliaths in a row.
Creighton is a great shooting team. Full stop. Though we liked Indiana State this season, we’re not sure we would take any squad over the Bluejays in a game of Horse. But how many liabilities are they carrying into this game? Well, how many fingers, toes and Achilles’ heels do you have to count on? They force turnovers on fewer possessions than any team in the NCAA (just 11.1 percent). While they don’t miss many shots, they give themselves very few second opportunities (OR% of 25.8 percent, ranking 283rd in the country). They rely on threes more than almost anyone (48.6 percent of FGA as 3PA, ranking eighth). They play slow, too (67.9 possessions per game, ranking 215th). Translation: They don’t take chances to build possessions, but they do take risks to shoot, and it’s difficult for them to separate from opponents. Overall, Slingshot pegs Creighton as the 11th-best team in the country — but estimates its statistical profile will lead the Bluejays to underperform by a whopping 7.8 points per 100 possessions in the setting of this tournament.
As we have written many times before, if a team relies nearly exclusively on its shooting prowess, a one-off night at this time of year can send them home for good. Already this year, Creighton has shot 6-29 on threes (20.7 percent) and lost to Colorado State; shot 8-29 on threes (27.6 percent) and lost to UNLV; lost close games to Butler and Providence where the Bluejays were in single digits in both offensive rebounds and turnovers forced; and lasted for all of 40 minutes in the Big East conference tournament after a 6-26 (23.1 percent) performance from downtown.
The team most similar to Creighton in our database is last year’s Bluejays, and it’s still more likely than not that Creighton will dispatch Oregon the way their 2023 squad was able to handle North Carolina State and Baylor. But the most similar team to Oregon is Oregon from 2021. And the risk is real that in this matchup, the Ducks will do to the Bluejays what they did to Iowa three years ago.
No. 2 Tennessee Volunteers vs. No. 7 Texas Longhorns
Upset Chance: 28.4 percent
Spread: Tennessee favored by 6.5 points
At first glance, this game doesn’t pass the upset eye test. Tennessee isn’t just a good team; it’s a good giant — with success in a lot of categories that help stave off upsets. And Texas doesn’t play a high-risk/high-reward brand of basketball. So why does this game have the second-highest chance of an upset on Saturday?
History plays a part. Four of the 10 most similar matchups in our model’s database ended in upsets, and…
This article was originally published by a theathletic.com . Read the Original article here. .