The NFL playoffs’ divisional round schedule for the 2023 season is stacked with great matchups, and we’ve got you covered with what you need to know heading into the weekend. Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the biggest keys to every game and a bold prediction for each matchup.
Additionally, ESPN Stats & Information provides a big stat to know and a betting nugget for each contest, and our Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a game projection. Analytics writer Seth Walder picks out each matchup’s biggest X factor, Matt Bowen identifies a key game-planning matchup to watch in every game, and Kevin Seifert tells us what to know about the officiating. Finally, Walder and Eric Moody give us final score picks for every game. Everything you want to know is here in one spot to help you get ready for a loaded weekend of NFL playoff football.
Let’s get into the full divisional slate, including a Patrick Mahomes–Josh Allen showdown, the Lions trying to keep their playoff run going and the surging Texans and Packers visiting the No. 1 seeds as big underdogs.
Jump to a matchup:
HOU-BAL | GB-SF
TB-DET | KC-BUF
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET | ESPN/ABC/ESPN+ | Spread: BAL -9.5 (43.5)
What to watch for: One frustrating postseason streak will come to an end. Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is 0-2 in the divisional round, throwing one touchdown pass and three interceptions. But the Texans are 0-4 in the divisional round, losing by an average of 14.5 points. — Jamison Hensley
Bold prediction: Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud will throw for over 300 yards, becoming the first quarterback to achieve that feat against the Ravens since Tom Brady threw for 325 yards on Oct. 27, 2022. Stroud led the league in passing yards per game this season (273) and could have thrown for well over 300 in the wild-card game against the Browns’ No. 1-ranked defense when he threw for 236 in the first half. — DJ Bien-Aime
Stat to know: The Ravens used play-action at the seventh-highest rate in the regular season (26%), and Jackson thrived with it, ranking in the top seven in the league in QBR, completion percentage and yards per attempt. However, the Texans were among the worst defenses defending play-action this season — they ranked in the bottom five in QBR, completion percentage and yards per attempt.
Matchup X factor: The Texans’ offensive line. All season the Ravens have used simulated pressure to disrupt their opponent’s protection to great success while still maintaining numbers in coverage. The Ravens recorded 27 sacks with simulated pressure, more than any other team. Houston’s offensive line needs to be ready if it’s going to protect Stroud. — Walder
Game-plan key: I’d like to see Houston offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik get Stroud outside of the pocket on some boot concepts to pull Baltimore defenders, with tight end Dalton Schultz working as the underneath target. That could be key to the Texans getting into a rhythm against the really good Ravens defense. Read more at ESPN+. — Bowen
Officiating note: In a year when NFL officials threw more flags for intentional grounding (61) than in any season since at least 2000, it should be noted that referee John Hussey’s regular-season crew was the most aggressive with seven such flags. And as it turns out, Jackson took five such penalties, most in the NFL. Stroud took one. — Seifert
Betting nugget: The Ravens are 11-6 against the spread (ATS) this season (unders are 9-8). The Texans are 10-8 ATS, including the playoffs (unders are 11-7).
Moody’s pick: Ravens 37, Texans 24
Walder’s pick: Ravens 27, Texans 20
FPI prediction: BAL, 81.7% (by an average of 12.8 points)
Matchup must-reads: How the Texans’ draft night changed the franchise … Ravens add Cook to roster, waive Gordon … Stroud ‘special’ as Texans get wild-card revenge on Browns … Jackson enters playoffs, proving ground vs. Texans
Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET | Fox | Spread: SF -9.5 (50.5)
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