Thursday night provided the most lopsided first round in NFL history. The first 14 picks were offensive players, a streak broken when the Indianapolis Colts took UCLA pass rusher Laiatu Latu. By night’s end, the 23 offensive players chosen in the first round shattered the previous mark of 19, set in 2009, 2004 and 1968. Six quarterbacks were chosen in the first 12 picks; only nine defensive players were taken in the first round.
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Even after a season in which scoring dropped and the Kansas City Chiefs rode their defense to a Super Bowl, the NFL doubled down on the era’s heavy skew toward offense. Naturally, quarterbacks led the way. The 1983 record of six first-round quarterbacks gained company, and quarterbacks were drafted with the first three picks (Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye) for the fourth time.
The eighth pick provided both the shock of the draft and a symbol of the NFL’s desperation for offense. Bereft of pass rushers and defensive playmakers, having signed Cousins for $45 million a season, the Falcons seemed like the ideal candidate to break the offensive stranglehold. The latest a defensive player had ever come off the board was eighth overall, when cornerback Jaycee Horn got picked in 2021.
The Falcons scoffed at logic and drafted quarterback Michael Penix Jr. They appeared to be in win-now mode after the Cousins signing, especially in the lightweight NFC South. And yet they drafted a 23-year-old quarterback with every defensive player available. Quarterback is so important that it’s hard to over-invest at the position. The Falcons sure tried.
If the Las Vegas Raiders entered the night hopeful to draft a quarterback with Gardner Minshew atop their depth chart, they were wondering what the heck happened when their pick arrived at 13. Only 12 selections happened before their turn, and six of them had been quarterbacks after the Denver Broncos took Bo Nix with the 12th pick. The Raiders went to the quarterback store and found empty shelves.
What happened? The draft annually provides both a judgment of a collegiate class and a snapshot of how the league approaches roster construction. The extreme offensive tilt of this first round reflected both. The record offensive output is partly happenstance owing to the particular players available. But it also indicates what NFL teams value and how players are selected for positions in the broader football landscape.
Multiple data points suggest breaking the 20-offensive-player barrier may be more fluke than trend. Only two years ago, the first five picks were defenders. Even last year, when quarterbacks were taken with the first two picks, defensive players were chosen third, fifth and seventh. If it’s a trend, it’s starting now.
This year’s draft class was also unique. It matched ample quarterback-needy teams (like always) with a confluence of quarterbacks talented and experienced enough to justify a first-round pick (which rarely happens). After the NFL struggled for years to find capable offensive linemen, this year produced a surplus — nine taken in round one. Meanwhile, the college game happened to generate few high-end pass rushers and cornerbacks this year.
The offensive glut, though, was not purely random. NFL front offices have leaned further into positional value, almost uniformly refusing to use extensive…
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