A loss to the New York Islanders back on Feb. 29 was not the end of the world for the Detroit Red Wings. Their win streak had to come to an end sometime, and six games is pretty commendable.
But that winning streak quickly turned into a losing skid.
Detroit was routed 4-0 by the Florida Panthers, then crushed 7-2 by the Colorado Avalanche. The third loss may have been the most daunting, because, unlike Florida and Colorado, the Arizona Coyotes are not a top team in this league. And yet, the Red Wings fell 4-0.
Saturday night’s 5-3 loss to the Vegas Golden Knights was another blow, but at least the team showed some resilience unlike in the games prior. Their failure to capture two points over that stretch, though, has resulted in the Islanders clawing their way back into the race and challenging the Red Wings for their playoff spot.
With the deadline passed and the pressure rising, it’s time to dust off the concern-o-meter™️.
The Dylan Larkin-less Detroit Red Wings
Concern-o-meter: 7/10
Just a few weeks ago, the Red Wings were building up hype. It looked like an up-and-coming Atlantic Division team was finally going to return to the postseason. But that is starting to change over this last stretch. The wheels are starting to come off in Detroit, and the team has to find a way to get back on track, fast.
There is no question the Red Wings have been missing Dylan Larkin over the last couple of games. Ideally losing one player doesn’t cause the rest of the group to collapse, but without him, others look out of their depths in expanded roles. And that isn’t the only reason this team has come back to earth, either. A lot of it has to do with their five-on-five play in 2024.
Despite Detroit allowing more than it generated, the team started cashing in on its chances at a high rate around the 40th game of the season. It was a drastic turnaround from the 20 or so games prior. And at the same time, the goaltending started to match that energy. But that just isn’t the most sustainable way to play; without changes below the surface to support that shooting luck and goaltending, a team can easily get burned.
Via HockeyViz
The Red Wings started to pick up their offensive creation, as pictured in the top viz above, but their defense continued to trend in the wrong direction. The goaltending just hasn’t been able to mask that over these last few games, and neither has the team’s goal scoring. And now the team does not have a firm grip on its playoff spot, only moving back into it on Monday night thanks to the Islanders’ loss to the Kings.
Detroit isn’t out of the mix over just a bad stretch of games. But its odds have dwindled — now down to 41 percent from 76 percent two weeks ago.
The concerning trends have unfortunately been there all along. With almost 80 percent of the season down, the Red Wings are the league leaders with 23 goals above expected at five-on-five. Even if public models aren’t capturing some of the puck movement that precedes their chances and do not account for finishing talent, this is a significant enough gap to raise a red flag from a sustainability standpoint.
That may explain why management opted against buying just yet. The Red Wings didn’t sell, which is a step forward from years past. But this team wasn’t ready to be a buyer, either. This team has shown glimpses of being for real this season, and now the Red Wings need to prove it during the most pivotal part of the year. So if Detroit is going to stay in the playoff race, it is on this group to make it happen — and they can’t wait another week for Larkin to return with teams like the Islanders surging around them.
Concern-o-meter: 9/10
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This article was originally published by a theathletic.com . Read the Original article here. .