The All-Star break is over, and now it’s time for the stretch drive. From here on out, the stakes get higher every day as teams amp up for the final push into the playoffs.
In the Eastern Conference, there are several locks, but things get fascinating after that, with one team that looks pretty safe and essentially five teams vying for the final two spots. It’s anyone’s game, which could make for one of the most fascinating playoff races in recent memory.
We update each team’s odds daily, but sometimes it’s wise to dig a little deeper and check in on why each team lands where it does. The All-Star break serves as the perfect time for that.
I’ve separated the league into seven tiers based on the following probability ranges:
Basically in: Above 95 percent
Safe shots: 85 to 95 percent
Likely bets: 70 to 85 percent
The bubble: 30 to 70 percent
Unlikely bets: 15 to 30 percent
Long shots: 5 to 15 percent
Basically out: Below 5 percent
Here’s how each team in the East stacks up. You can find the Western Conference here.
Basically in
Boston Bruins: 99 percent
Florida Panthers: 99 percent
Carolina Hurricanes: 99 percent
New York Rangers: 97 percent
Toronto Maple Leafs: 96 percent
All five teams are on pace for more than 101 points, which puts them in lock territory — especially when that could end up being 10 points clear of the East playoff cutoff. In terms of projections, the Leafs are expected to land at 102 points, 12 points up on Detroit and Philadelphia, who sit eighth and ninth, respectively, with an expected 90 points. It would take a small miracle for any of these teams to miss.
Safe shots
Tampa Bay Lightning: 87 percent
Come on now — is it really the playoffs without the Lightning? Tampa Bay has won eight of its last nine and finally appears to be hitting its stride this season. This current streak has created a decent amount of separation between the Lightning and the other East hopefuls. Add in their pedigree as a perennial playoff team and it’s difficult to imagine them losing grip on this spot. Just imagine what this team might look like once Andrei Vasilevskiy stops providing below-average goaltending, too.
Likely bets
Pittsburgh Penguins: 75 percent
The Pittsburgh Penguins have lost more games than they’ve won and are currently outside of a playoff spot. And yet here they are at 75 percent — make it make sense!
For starters, don’t pay as much mind to their point total compared to other playoff hopefuls. Their 46 games played is the fewest in the East, and four fewer than the third-place Flyers. Five points back with four games in hand isn’t a huge hurdle, especially since the reeling Flyers aren’t controlling play to nearly the same degree they were earlier in the season. Between the Flyers and the other teams around them, the competition isn’t that fierce for the Penguins.
There are a few reasons to like Pittsburgh to get in. For starters, the Penguins have been one of the unluckiest teams vying for a playoff spot, with a 7-5-7 record in one-goal games. That sequencing luck helps explain how a team with a plus-12 goal differential is on pace for only 91 points.
At five-on-five, the Penguins are still a beast, earning 54 percent of the goals, a number that lands in the league’s top 10, sandwiched between the Panthers and the Oilers. That’s good company and is usually the barometer of a playoff-caliber team. Pittsburgh’s penalty kill is also in the top 10, as is starting goalie Tristan Jarry for goals saved above expected.
Everything is working well — except the power play, which has been a massive thorn in the team’s side. It’s the main reason the team isn’t in a playoff spot now, especially given the team’s record in one-goal games. Despite being top 10 in chances generated, the Penguins are 29th with only 4.8 goals per 60.
Given the personnel, I would expect that to turn around at some point. Time may not be on Pittsburgh’s side, but given the team’s…
This article was originally published by a theathletic.com . Read the Original article here. .