Who’s the favorite to win the Stanley Cup as we head into the second half of the NHL season?
The answer’s murkier than ever as parity has swept the league, with no major contender without a major flaw.
Other futures look easier to predict at this point, based on The Athletic’s latest NHL staff polling, including new clear favorites for the Hart and Vezina Trophies and seven of eight teams in the Western Conference playoff field already getting 100 percent of the vote.
This week, The Athletic polled staffers on the same set of prediction questions we asked in the preseason and every month since. Here’s how our expectations for 2023-24 have evolved, with analysis, critique and trolling from national writer Sean Gentille, analytics know-it-all Shayna Goldman and NHL betting expert Jesse Granger.
Who will win the Stanley Cup?
Percent of vote | Oct. | Nov. | Dec. | Jan. |
---|---|---|---|---|
6.1% | 16.7% | 32.3% | 19.4% | |
33.3% | 30.0% | 22.6% | 12.9% | |
0.0% | 30.0% | 12.9% | 12.9% | |
0.0% | 3.3% | 12.9% | 12.9% | |
24.2% | 0.0% | 6.5% | 12.9% | |
30.3% | 16.7% | 0.0% | 6.5% | |
0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.5% | |
0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.5% | |
3.0% | 0.0% | 6.5% | 3.2% | |
0.0% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.2% | |
0.0% | 0.0% | 3.2% | 3.2% | |
3.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Gentille: It makes sense to see the Avs dip a bit from last month. Since Dec. 16, they’ve gone 11-5-1 with some pretty average underlying numbers. I don’t think that’s a reason to abandon ship, but it’s not world-beater stuff.
Granger: Quite a few people jumped back aboard the Edmonton roller coaster, and it’s hard to blame them. Not only have the Oilers won 12 straight, but they’re 20-3-0 since Nov. 24, outscoring opponents 91-49 in that span with a league-leading expected goal share of 61 percent. Impressive stuff.
Goldman: And while Colorado and Edmonton’s stock rises … talk about a drop off for the Hurricanes. The goaltending probably is to blame here, even though they’ve trended up the standings over the last stretch.
Who will be the runners-up?
Percent of vote | Oct. | Nov. | Dec. | Jan. |
---|---|---|---|---|
3.0% | 40.0% | 45.2% | 32.3% | |
0.0% | 0.0% | 6.5% | 25.8% | |
18.2% | 16.7% | 6.5% | 12.9% | |
0.0% | 6.7% | 12.9% | 6.5% | |
9.1% | 0.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | |
9.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.5% | |
33.3% | 20.0% | 3.2% | 3.2% | |
0.0% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.2% | |
0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.2% | |
9.1% | 6.7% | 3.2% | 0.0% | |
15.2% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 0.0% | |
0.0% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 0.0% | |
0.0% | 0.0% | 3.2% | 0.0% | |
0.0% | 0.0% | 3.2% | 0.0% | |
3.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Gentille: The Rangers are 7-7-1 in their past 15, and Igor Shesterkin’s save percentage (.902) is below the league average. Little too much love for them, at the moment.
Granger: One interesting thing I noticed in these trends is the Golden Knights have consistently gotten a good number of votes to win it all but almost none to finish as runners-up. The takeaway? You either really believe in that team, or you really don’t.
Goldman: The Panthers are giving off similar vibes to the Bruins of last season. They managed through some key injuries to start the schedule and look like one of the teams to beat in the East. It’s a wide-open field if a team wants to emerge as last season’s Panthers, though.
Who will finish in last place?
Percent of vote | Oct. | Nov. | Dec. | Jan. |
---|---|---|---|---|
84.8% | 100.0% | 45.2% | 87.1% | |
0.0% | 0.0% | 25.8% | 12.9% | |
9.1% | 0.0% | 16.1% | 0.0% | |
0.0% | 0.0% | 9.7% | 0.0% | |
0.0% | 0.0% | 3.2% | 0.0% | |
3.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
3.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Granger: The Blackhawks and Ducks were gaining some serious ground on the Sharks the last time we held this poll. Since Dec. 15, San Jose has gone 1-14-1 to take a commanding “lead.”
Who will be the biggest disappointment?
Must have been projected at 100-plus points in the preseason by Dom’s model.
Goldman: The Devils have moved to the top of the list, and it’s easy to see why. The injuries are building up for key players, and the goaltending has been a wreck. Someone is going to have to miss out on the playoffs in the Metropolitan Division, and the odds are turning against them.
Gentille: Laughed out loud at the Oilers getting 93 percent in November. It made sense at the time!
Granger: The Devils have to trade for a goalie, right? If New Jersey upgrades in net, I still believe in this team’s ability to go on a long run, but if not, the Devils are heading for a majorly disappointing end to the season.
Who’s your…
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