NHL general managers won’t cast their votes for the Vezina Trophy until the end of the regular season, but the race for the award is essentially over, and has been for some time.
Winnipeg’s Connor Hellebuyck had the best season of his impressive nine-year career, outplayed the rest of the NHL goalies by a considerable margin, and is the prohibitive favorite to win his second Vezina this summer.
The 30-year-old has saved an impressive 35.9 goals above expected in 56 starts, according to Evolving-Hockey. That means every time Hellebuyck has taken the crease for the Jets this season, he’s stolen more than half of a goal per game on average. It’s one of the biggest reasons Winnipeg has been well above the playoff cut line all year.
While Hellebuyck likely has the top spot wrapped up, there’s still plenty of debate as to which goalies will join him as finalists for the Vezina. It has been a year of resurgence at the position, with several former stars returning to peak form. Jacob Markstrom and Thatcher Demko both bounced back after a disappointing 2022-23. Sergei Bobrovsky kept his hot streak from last year’s playoffs rolling, and Jordan Binnington looked better than he has since leading the St. Louis Blues to a Cup in 2019.
Today we’ll take a closer look at Hellebuyck’s brilliance and break down which other goalies are most deserving of joining him on the 2024 Vezina ballot.
1. Connor Hellebuyck
GSAx: 35.9 GSAx (1st)
Save percentage: .920 (1st)
Wins: 33 (T-4th)
The Jets have allowed the fewest goals of any team this season. Their defense hasn’t been poor, but the underlying numbers certainly don’t scream “elite.” Winnipeg ranks 16th in expected goals allowed per 60 minutes (3.14) and 23rd in high-danger chances given up (12.07) according to Natural Stat Trick.
Despite those middling defensive metrics, Hellebuyck makes Winnipeg a defensive powerhouse. When he and the Jets are at their best, they’ve been nearly impossible to score on.
How has Hellebuyck done it? While he is a great athlete, he isn’t the most explosive or flexible compared to other top NHL goalies. He doesn’t make as many sprawling highlight-reel saves as some others, mainly because he doesn’t need to. His biggest strength is his mental processing speed, which allows him to diagnose the play and get into the best position to leave the shooter with no net to shoot at.
This save against New York Rangers defenseman Braden Schneider on March 19 is a good demonstration of Hellebuyck’s awareness and ability to process information at a high rate of speed.
Early in the video when the puck bounces into the nearside corner, Hellebuyck realizes there’s no immediate threat to shoot and takes two quick glances over his left shoulder to survey the ice. He’s building a mental picture of where the opposing skaters are in the zone, what hand they shoot with, and any other clues that could help him make the eventual save.
When Erik Gustafsson makes the cross-ice pass to Schneider on the back door, Hellebuyck tracks the puck well through the traffic, leading his move across the crease with his eyes. Schneider is right-handed, so the threat of a one-timer is minimal. Hellebuyck likely knows he has extra fractions of a second to get across before the shot is released.
This is where the save is special. Rather than sprawling across in desperation, which would only cover a small portion of the net, Hellebuyck stays within his structure, gets to the far-side post and drops into a controlled reverse vertical horizontal (RVH) position that gives Schneider nowhere to shoot the puck. Here’s the save in slow motion from a better angle that shows just how controlled Hellebuyck is. Not only does he make the save look easy, but he’s also in perfect position for any rebound attempt, and an easy cover.
Hellebuyck is visibly calm in the crease, and it’s one of the biggest reasons he tracks pucks so well. He makes very little unnecessary movement and holds…
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