This is the digital version of Scoop City. If you want it earlier, start every morning with Scoop City delivered to your inbox. Sign up here.
As Jets fans know, the odds of a top-10 QB succeeding are lower than most suspect.
Today’s newsletter includes:
- 🔎 Success rates of Top-10 QBs
- 📰 Mock draft updates
- 🔥 Michael Penix’s impressive pro day
Success Rate of QBs Drafted Top-10
With four quarterbacks potentially drafted in the top-10 this year, what does history tell us about the chances the likely four of Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye or J.J. McCarthy find success in the NFL?
I counted every QB drafted in the top 10 since 2011, when that year’s collective bargaining agreement made starting rookie-contract QBs more valuable and incentivized drafting a QB earlier.
To sort among stars, busts and everything in between, I looked at five criteria:
(1) Starts: Were they good enough to start at least 50 games in their career?
(2) Wins: Did they have a winning record with the team that drafted them?
(3) Valuable: Did they sign a second contract with the team that drafted them?
(4) Longevity: Were they still starting after turning 29? and
(5) Playoffs: Did they win a playoff game?
Players were put into four categories: Stars hit all five criteria, starters satisfied at least three, a major reach hit at least one and major busts satisfied none.
If a player like C.J. Stroud or Bryce Young didn’t qualify for a category, it wasn’t counted against them.
Here’s what the numbers looked like:
QBs in Top-10 likely to start
One of every four QBs drafted in the top 10 hit each criteria. The No. 1 pick in 2011, Cam Newton, checked every box and thus counts as a star by these criteria. Same with Patrick Mahomes (No. 10 in 2017).
It’s most likely a QB drafted in the top 10 becomes a starter, like Baker Mayfield, who went No. 1 in 2018 and checked three of five boxes. Others include Ryan Tannehill (No. 8 in 2012) and Carson Wentz (No. 2 in 2016).
There is a 41% chance of drafting a reach or bust in the top-10. A major reach is a serviceable backup who should’ve been drafted three rounds later, like Marcus Mariota (No. 2 in 2015). A major bust was good for nothing. This list includes Josh Rosen (No. 10 in 2018).
The good news? Drafting a QB in the top-10 has produced at least a starter around 60 percent of the time. That’s good value on these rookie contracts, which should keep the trend of reaching for QBs alive.
The bad news? These numbers fall drastically if we remove the No. 1 pick. The chances of drafting stars like Joe Burrow or Andrew Luck fall by 34 percent, while the major bust rate jumps up by 50 percent.
QB success rate falls after No. 1
1. You really want the No. 1 pick. If the historical figures continue at this rate, there is a good chance the No. 1 pick in this year’s draft plays at least 50 games, wins a playoff game and is still starting by age 29. Not bad!
2. Every QB drafted No. 2 through 10 has a success rate of just under 50 percent. With Daniels, Maye and McCarthy expected to fall in that bucket, all three will hope to beat historical patterns and become stars. Odds are, only one will.
Which of those three QBs do you think is most likely to succeed in the NFL? Let us know in the comments.
NFL 2024 Mocks: Post-free agency moves
I love mock drafts. I don’t know why, but maybe it’s because they are an excuse to delay filing my taxes. Here are three interesting notes from recent mock drafts on The Athletic:
1. Robert Kraft needs a new quarterback. Soon. Kraft made it clear at the league meetings that he wants the Patriots to land a “top-rate, young quarterback” in this draft. Jacoby Brissett is currently slated to start for New England.
Beat writer Chad Graff believes that moving back is only an option if New England’s preferred QB, likely Drake Maye, is gone by No. 3. Given this, NFL Draft analyst Nick Baumgardner shared different…
This article was originally published by a theathletic.com . Read the Original article here. .