Now, “the future control of the United States Senate will come down to Maryland,” says Sen. Chris Van Hollen, a Democrat who occupies the state’s other seat. “If Larry Hogan wins in Maryland, it means MAGA Republicans are in charge of the United States Senate. It’s as simple as that.”
Well, maybe not quite that simple.
Even before Hogan’s surprise decision, Democrats were going to have to run the table to hold the Senate, where they currently have a 51-49 majority. (The body’s three independents caucus with them.) If they lose one seat and the Senate splits evenly, control will go to the incoming president’s party, with the vice president holding the tiebreaking vote.
This year’s map could hardly be more challenging for Democrats. West Virginia, even the most optimistic would agree, is lost to them with the retirement of Joe Manchin III. Sherrod Brown of Ohio and Jon Tester of Montana are fighting uphill reelection battles in heavily Republican states. At least five other seats held by Democrats and an independent — Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan — will be closely fought. And there is no place where Democrats are favored to wrest a seat from Republicans.
Hogan’s decision, at least as he tells the story, came together quickly. Many times, he had disavowed any interest in serving in a frustrating, fractious chamber where little gets done these days. He started reconsidering in early January, after receiving an email from Darin Thacker, chief of staff to Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.), who heads the Republicans’ Senate campaign operation. Thacker argued that Hogan could make a difference there, and asked the former governor to at least meet with his boss.
“He also said, ‘By the way, we’ve done a poll showing you are beating the leading Democrat by 16 points,’” Hogan told me.
Then other Republicans started calling Hogan. Among the most persuasive, he said, was former president George W. Bush. The two had a long talk, Hogan recalled. “It was basically, ‘you have an important voice for the party. And I think you’re one of the few that has that voice. And I think being in the Senate would elevate that voice and I think it’s important for the party and the country.’”
What made up Hogan’s mind, however, was seeing Senate Republicans, at the insistence of former president Donald Trump, kill a bipartisan deal to beef up border security and provide funding for Ukraine and Israel.
This happened on the night of Feb. 7 — just two days before Maryland’s filing deadline. “It was something I was really passionate about. And I watched this, where they were [given] everything they said they wanted and they would hold a vote against that,” Hogan said. “And instead of saying, oh my gosh, I never want to be a part of that, I was like, I think I’m going to do it. I think I’m going to go down there and try to basically get some stuff done.”
While early polling suggests Hogan is in the lead, he insists he does not begin as the front-runner, given that Maryland is one of the bluest states in the country, that it hasn’t elected a Republican to the Senate since 1980 and that Joe Biden beat Trump by 33 points in 2020. Add to that the fact that he has never run for statewide office in a presidential election year — in this case, one in which Trump will be at the top of the ticket.
“Look, I’m the underdog. There’s no question. If history tells you anything, this should [go to] the Democrat. But I think I have an argument to make,”…
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