China has been watching the Kinzhal closely to see how it stacks up against US systems in Ukraine.
Beijing hopes that its own hypersonic missiles will give it an edge over the US in a potential war.
But some defense analysts in China are questioning Russia’s performance with the missile.
Modern militaries have been looking to the war in Ukraine as a proving ground for advanced weapons. But observers in China hoping to study Russia’s use of hypersonic missiles — one of the most-hyped tools in Beijing’s own arsenal — are signaling they won’t learn much from Moscow.
Chinese defense magazines have, in the last year, been reporting on the Russian Kinzhal with great interest, analyzing its performance against US-provided Patriot systems and in the war in general.
For a good reason: The Kinzhal’s appearance in Ukraine is Beijing’s first opportunity to observe how such sophisticated weapons fare in battle against Western equipment.
China hopes its own hypersonic missile, the Dongfeng, will be game-changing in its capacity to take down US aircraft carriers.
But the Kinzhal, touted by the Kremlin as an “unstoppable” hypersonic weapon, is being reported by the West to have been thwarted by Patriot systems or to have simply missed its targets.
“There is more and more evidence showing that what the US and Ukraine say on this matter is true,” Chinese defense analyst Yin Jie wrote in November in the Shaanxi-based military magazine Ordnance Industry Science and Technology.
While such journals don’t necessarily reflect views or intel from within the People’s Liberation Army, state agencies must approve their publishers.
Despite this, Yin issued a surprisingly critical review of how Russia uses the Kinzhal, otherwise known as the “Dagger,” writing that the missile is “unlikely to have a significant impact” on the battlefield.
That directly contradicts how Russia, a close ally of China, has portrayed the weapon as a pivotal munition for victory.
A ‘short-term, hasty’ project
The Chinese analyst spelled out various ways Russia has undermined its own missile, from how the Kinzhal is fired to its availability. The Kinzhal, they concluded, just isn’t the star that Moscow makes it out to be.
Yin described the Kinzhal as an evolution of Russia’s ground-launched Iskander missile that was rapidly completed in a “short-term, hasty project that was forced to be launched” as Western rivals put pressure on Moscow in the years before the war.
“This missile, which was developed based on the technical framework of the 1980s, may not have any amazing battlefield performance,” the analyst added.
The Kinzhal’s maneuverability, they wrote, “cannot be compared with that of a real hypersonic missile.” Its ballistic trajectory also makes the Kinzhal susceptible to defense systems like the Patriot, Yin added.
A similar view can be found in “Showdown between the Dagger and the Patriot in Ukraine,” an analysis published by the prominent Beijing-based defense and science journal Military Arms.
The Kinzhal, this separate analysis said, is at best a “marginal hypersonic missile.”
“Although Russia calls the ‘Dagger’ a hypersonic missile, analysts from other countries generally believe that the so-called hypersonic ‘Dagger’ missile is actually an air-launched version of the ‘Iskander’ short-range tactical ballistic missile,” it said.
That assessment aligns with what Western experts have said about the Kinzhal — that it’s not a “true” hypersonic missile in that it can reach hypersonic velocity but can’t glide and maneuver effectively at such speeds.
“The ‘Dagger’ missile has more than enough ambition but not enough power,” the July analysis said.
‘The accuracy is unsatisfactory’
In his…
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