GOP senators say there is less enthusiasm for former President Trump among Republican-leaning voters compared to 2016, a drop in voter energy that was apparent when only 15 percent of Iowa’s registered Republicans showed up for Monday’s caucuses.
Lawmakers acknowledge the weather was a factor behind the low turnout in Iowa but point to other signs of diminished enthusiasm for Trump, something that could hurt down-ballot Republican candidates in swing states.
Senate Republicans hope that Trump’s problems will be balanced by lower enthusiasm among Democrats for President Biden, though they expect Trump being atop the ticket will drive Democratic voters to the polls in large numbers.
Another concern among GOP senators is that Biden will have a big fundraising advantage over Trump, who is pouring his resources into his legal defense in the face of four criminal trials and two civil cases.
Republicans are looking ahead to Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary to get another look at voter turnout and what it signals for this year’s general election.
“I don’t think he has the same enthusiasm he did in 2016 but I think he has plenty to become the nominee,” said Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah), who ran for president in 2008 and 2012 and won the GOP nomination in 2012.
Romney, a Trump critic, thinks Trump would beat Biden if the election were held today but doesn’t know whether he’ll keep his polling lead as his legal problems play out in court and Democrats build what Republicans expect to be a major fundraising advantage.
“There’s going to be a lot that happens over the coming year — almost a year — so I’d say it’s still a toss-up,” he said.
Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) said voters are fatigued with Trump but argued they’re also tired of Biden.
“The turnout models have to be adjusted on both ends of the spectrum because I do think that you’ve got some of the ‘I’m not excited about either option’ dimension,” he said.
One Republican senator who requested anonymity to discuss voter enthusiasm for Trump compared to 2016 said: “It seems less to me.”
The lawmaker also expressed concern Trump is burning through “a lot of money” because of his court battles.
“It’s a distraction financially and of time and mental [energy,]” the source said.
Questions about voter enthusiasm for Trump were raised anew after the Iowa caucuses, in which just more than 110,000 voters participated — representing only 15 percent of the state’s registered Republicans.
By contrast, 187,000 Republican voters showed up at the Iowa caucuses when Trump first ran for president in 2016.
In 2012, when Romney was the front-runner, 122,000 voters showed up in Iowa.
Other factors could have contributed to the lower turnout.
The weather was horrendous, even by Iowa in January standards, with temperatures hovering around zero. Trump was also the runaway favorite in Iowa and won the caucuses handily. That status may have kept some of his supporters home, as they may have felt they weren’t needed.
Still, there are reasons for Republicans to be concerned given a steady stream of signs that many voters are not enthused about a Biden-Trump rematch.
A Colby College poll released Friday, for example, showed rural voters, one of Trump’s core constituencies, aren’t that excited about his candidacy. Nearly a third of rural voters said their vote for Trump was really a vote against Biden and just more than half of them said they are “very happy” with him as the GOP nominee.
A Gallup poll conducted from Dec. 1 to Dec. 20 showed Trump and Biden both have low approval ratings.
The survey found Trump’s approval rating among American adults at 42 percent — a few points lower than he had in a Gallup survey a month before the 2020 election, which Trump lost to Biden….
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