“Stop treating this like it’s fantasy football. You don’t make trades. We have our nominee,” said Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii), a fervent supporter of President Biden. “He’s the leader of the free world. He’s the leader of our party and he’s objectively good at this job.”
“Donald Trump has a better story to tell because he can point to his record: low inflation, low interest rates, a secure border, a strong military,” said Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.), who endorsed ex-president Donald Trump soon after his governor, Doug Burgum (R), dropped out of the race last month.
Interviews with 10 senators — five Democrats and five Republicans — found remarkably similar expectations, with each side viewing the other’s likely nominee as largely unelectable.
The biggest difference has been that Senate Democrats have long been a political bulwark for Biden, remaining publicly and privately supportive of him even as some polls suggest another Democrat would fare better against Trump. None seriously considered a primary challenge to him despite calls from some party elders.
That attitude spans the ideological spectrum and the vast generational range in their caucus.
“Donald Trump will be the nominee. Joe Biden will beat him like a drum, all right? Donald Trump has done nothing to expand the number of people who want to see him as president,” said Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), who ran to Biden’s left in the 2020 primary.
“I think the president is in a very strong position,” said Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.), who at 36 is the youngest senator. In a critical swing state that Biden won by fewer than 12,000 votes, Ossoff noted that Georgia Republicans boast about their growing economy and manufacturing sector.
“We’re in the midst in Georgia of a manufacturing investment boom that flows directly from the manufacturing incentives and infrastructure policies that we passed,” Ossoff said, crediting the 2021 bipartisan infrastructure law.
Senate Republicans, however, were the most resistant bloc of GOP leaders toward another Trump nomination. They lost the majority in 2020, losing more ground in 2022, with candidates who echoed Trump’s political style.
By summer 2023 only 10 of the 49 GOP senators had endorsed another Trump bid. Soon after New Year’s Day, it became clear that he would steamroll through Iowa and win big in New Hampshire, which prompted an additional 10 Senate Republicans to formally endorse Trump this month. Fewer than 20 holdouts remain, but they have all acknowledged his almost certain victory for the nomination.
“We had several candidates who could beat [Biden]. I think the former president has a shot at beating him,” said Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.), who has remained neutral since his first choice, Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), dropped out of the race.
Even Trump skeptics like Rounds give him the edge over Biden — if he can run a disciplined campaign focused on his policy record.
But both sides of the Senate aisle expect Trump to struggle with his focus, expecting plenty of talk about false claims of a stolen 2020 election and retribution against Democrats and Republicans who have opposed him.
“I think people will be willing to go back to Trump, if they find in him somebody who’s going to invoke policies to make their life better. Now, if they look at him and find somebody who’s just mad and vengeful, I think he has a problem,” Sen. Lindsey O. Graham (R-S.C.), a consistent Trump supporter, said.
Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.), who also ran against Biden in the 2020 primaries, had a more blunt assessment: “Donald Trump is the most…
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