A special election in the suburbs of New York to replace disgraced former Rep. George Santos could offer clues about the mindset of suburban voters everywhere as 2024 election contests ramp up across the country.
The Tuesday contest for the House seat held by Santos until his recent expulsion is shaping up to be a bellwether in the fight for control of Congress, as candidates test political messages their parties hope will appeal to suburban voters in the fall. It not only could subtract one more vote from Republicans’ narrow majority in the short run but will be monitored carefully for any signals it sends about what suburban voters elsewhere may be thinking entering the highly volatile 2024 election year.
The Long Island race pits former U.S. Rep. Tom Suozzi, a Democrat who represented the district for three terms before quitting to run for governor, against Republican nominee Mazi Pilip, a county legislator.
The seat, which represents suburbs just east of New York City plus a small part of Queens, became vacant after Santos was expelled from the House late last year after getting charged with multiple counts of fraud and stealing from donors.
While the Santos scandal gives the race a unique backstory, the candidates have campaigned on issues that could be aimed at suburban voters anywhere, with Republicans hammering away on immigration and crime while Democrats cast themselves as the last line of defense on abortion rights.
Tuesday’s special election gives both parties an opportunity to assess strategies for November’s general election, when New York is expected to be a battleground in the fight for control of the House, where Republicans now hold a thin majority.
“It’s a bellwether for the rest of the country, in that candidates and political operatives are looking at the strategies and tactics and the messaging to see how it’ll play out in their swing suburbs,” said Larry Levy, dean of the National Center for Suburban Studies at Hofstra University on Long Island. “February 13th is really about November 5th, and swing suburban districts all over the country.”
The district itself could potentially wind up being reshaped before the November election because of a lingering battle over redistricting in New York, making its status as a measure of voter sentiment in a district that hasn’t changed yet especially interesting.
Pilip entered the race with an intriguing personal story.
Born in Ethiopia, she left that country at age 12 as part of Operation Solomon, when Israel airlifted some 14,500 Ethiopian Jews in less than two days as civil war and famine raged in the Horn of Africa. The new arrivals struggled to transition from their developing home country to Israel, with many Ethiopian Israelis alleging racist treatment, police harassment and discriminatory slights.
As an adult, she served in a gunsmith unit in Israel’s military. She moved to the U.S. after marrying a Ukrainian-American doctor in 2005. Pilip was elected to the Nassau County legislature in 2021.
Though she publicly identifies as a Republican, Pilip registered as a Democrat when she got to the U.S. and still hasn’t changed her voter registration. She said she drifted away from the party as it became more liberal. A spokesman said Pilip decided to wait until after the election to formally change her party affiliation to avoid legal complications that could potentially knock her off the ballot.
Despite her background, Pilip has hammered Democrats and President Joe Biden over U.S. immigration policy. She has argued for additional policing of the border to stop illegal immigration as well as the construction of a border wall.
She held one of her first news conferences of the campaign outside a site in Queens, where New York City officials had set up a large shelter to house homeless migrants, many of whom were bused to New York after crossing the southern border.
“This is a big concern for my district,” Pilip said. “A lot of residents very much…
This article was originally published by a abcnews.go.com . Read the Original article here. .