CNN
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Donald Trump would normally have little reason to be at a rally in Ohio – a state the presumptive Republican nominee twice carried comfortably – eight months before the November election.
But the former president’s endorsement, the most coveted in a GOP primary, hasn’t yet sealed the deal for businessman Bernie Moreno, who’s locked in a three-way primary that will be this year’s first test of Trump’s cachet in a contested Senate race.
Tuesday’s winner will take on Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown – one of two Democrats running for reelection in Trump states whose fates are crucial to Senate control this fall.
Democrats are carefully eyeing the high-stakes Republican primary, with an outside group running ads that boost Moreno over state Sen. Matt Dolan and Secretary of State Frank LaRose. Their spending suggests they see Moreno as the preferred candidate to go toe-to-toe with Brown in a state that’s been trending red. The state went for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012 before swinging to Trump four years later.
Though Trump appeared at a Saturday rally north of Dayton hosted by a super PAC supporting Moreno, national Republicans – who have endorsed in primaries in many of their other targeted seats this cycle – have stayed out of this race, believing that any of the three men can defeat Brown.
But Dolan recently secured the backing of two prominent Ohio Republicans – former Sen. Rob Portman and Gov. Mike DeWine. Their engagement has thrust into this race the split in the Ohio GOP between the Trump and more establishment wings, effectively pitting the two self-funding candidates against each other in the final stretch.
“So Bernie’s running against a weak RINO (Republican in Name Only) named Matt Dolan,” Trump said Saturday in a speech that was much more about himself than his endorsed Senate candidate. “He’s trying to become the next Mitt Romney,” Trump added, trying to tie Dolan to the Utah senator and 2012 GOP nominee, while ignoring LaRose.
Kareem Elgazzar/The Enquirer/USA Today
Bernie Moreno greets voters and candidates for other offices before an endorsement meeting of the Warren County GOP adjourns on January 18, 2024, in Lebanon, Ohio.
As of Thursday, GOP campaigns and outside groups had combined to spend more than $34 million on the primary, led by Dolan, who had spent $9.6 million on ads, and Moreno, who had spent $7.8 million, according to AdImpact data. LaRose, a former Green Beret who started with early name recognition as the only statewide elected official in the race, hasn’t had the same personal resources to compete, but he has benefited from significant outside spending.
Not surprising for a GOP primary – even one more than 1,000 miles from Mexico – immigration has been a dominant theme in advertising, with candidates and their allies either touting their commitment to securing the border or attacking their opponents for supporting “amnesty.”
But amongst all that noise on TV, it may be the underlying fissures in the party that ultimately determine Tuesday’s primary – and what the fall matchup looks like.
“The big question mark in all of this: Who is that undecided category – is it the Trumpier side of the party or the less Trumpier side?” said Ohio Republican strategist Bob Clegg, who is not involved with any of the…
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