His nomination assured, Donald Trump is turning to what will almost assuredly be a drawn-out, orchestrated process to select his running mate. The former president, who knows a thing or two about televised drama, is dropping hints about who is in and who is out, juicing up interest in his rematch with Joe Biden.
“The V.P. selection process is the one time Trump is fully in charge, and watch him work it hard, right up to the announcement,” said Scott Reed, who was the campaign manager for Bob Dole’s 1996 campaign for president.
Yet, for all the hoopla ahead, it’s hardly guaranteed that the vice-presidential choice will significantly alter the contours of the presidential campaign. It rarely does. Considering how Trump dominates the stage, it seems fair to wonder if any running mate can break through.
“The vice-presidential pick is something that generates a massive amount of press coverage but has the most minimal of impacts on the election,” said Dan Pfeiffer, a White House communications director under Barack Obama.
Over the past 50 years, there has been no shortage of examples when the vice-presidential selections arguably made no discernible difference: Hillary Clinton turning to Senator Tim Kaine of Virginia in 2016, for example.
And for every time the choice of a running mate appeared to provide a boost to the ticket — such as when Bill Clinton, the 1992 Democratic nominee for president, picked Senator Al Gore of Tennessee — there are cases in which it hurt more than it helped. (Senator John McCain, the Republican nominee for president in 2008, came to regret tapping Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska, for example.)
Trump’s choice of Mike Pence, the Indiana governor, in 2016 fell into the helps-more-than-it-hurts category. Pence’s selection calmed conservatives and evangelists wary of the playboy New York developer turned presidential candidate.
The vice president’s job has famously been belittled as “not worth a warm bucket of spit,” to quote John Nance Garner, who held the position under Franklin Delano Roosevelt. While it might not be the most exciting job in Washington, it is not all ribbon-cuttings and state funerals: Pence made a choice on Jan. 6, 2021, that had real consequences. And considering that Trump is 77, and Biden is 81, their running mates could matter for actuarial reasons in the minds of some voters.
For all that, in a race this close, what happens in the margins might matter. Here are a few variables that could play a role in Trump’s decision:
His gut: Trump may well go for the candidate in whom he sees himself, and Senator J.D. Vance of Ohio probably leads that list. Choosing Vance might help Trump energize his base of supporters, but it is debatable whether it would do much to broaden Trump’s own appeal.
It is reminiscent of Clinton’s reaching out to another Southern baby boomer, Gore, to join his ticket. The creation of a two-of-a-kind ticket drew a good deal of skepticism in political circles, similar to the kind of skepticism that a Vance pick might engender. But it worked, as became clear when Clinton and Gore set out on their first bus tour out of the Democratic National Convention at Madison Square Garden.
Race: With polls suggesting that Biden is losing support among some minority voters, it might be smart for Trump to pick a Black or Latino running mate. Tim Scott, the senator from South Carolina, is often mentioned among potential Black candidates.
There are fewer obvious Latino candidates. One of the most high-profile, Marco Rubio, the senator from Florida, has said he has no interest in being the No. 2 on a Trump ticket.
“The question for Trump’s team is, do they want to play offense or defense?” Pfeiffer said. “In other words, do they want to make a play for some of Biden’s voters or do they want to help keep Republicans uncomfortable with Trump’s chaos and criminality in the fold?”
Gender: There are many politically compelling reasons for Trump to…
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