It’s been a week since the NFL free agent market unofficially opened, and it didn’t take long for most of the prominent players on expiring contracts to signal where they’d be playing in 2024 (and, likely, beyond). Those decisions, and others that have trickled down since, have drastically reshaped the direction of next month’s draft – some clubs filling apparent needs, while new ones opened elsewhere.
Friday, a development directly impacting the first round emerged, the Vikings acquiring a second Round 1 pick from the Texans – though that could be a precursor to another move given Minnesota now has a long-term issue at quarterback following Kirk Cousins’ departure.
Moving forward, there are still a handful of significant free agents who could further shift draft strategies. And, if history is any indicator, another pre-draft trade or two – whether involving players and/or high-end picks – will further alter the landscape. But here’s the latest prognostication with the league’s signature offseason event just five weeks away:
1. Chicago Bears (from Carolina Panthers): QB Caleb Williams, USC
As if there was ever a mystery, previous QB1 Justin Fields was traded over the weekend for 10 cents on the dollar, clearing the way for GM Ryan Poles to replace him – presumably with Williams, the 2022 Heisman Trophy winner. His arm, vision, ability to make off-platform throws and otherwise vast potential make him tantalizing – Williams loosely compares himself to Aaron Rodgers, from a football perspective, rather than Patrick Mahomes. Williams is also a red-zone weapon (21 rushing TDs over the past two seasons) but typically uses his mobility to extend plays rather than break the pocket, passing for 72 TDs and more than 8,000 yards in two seasons with the Trojans. He’ll have to learn to protect the ball better and when to give up on bad plays, but Williams could soon be the linchpin of a Chicago revival … and throwing to WRs DJ Moore and Keenan Allen should provide a nice initiation. Also, bringing in a rookie quarterback resets the contractual clock at the position and allows Poles to continue loading up the rest of his roster – even after re-signing CB Jaylon Johnson and adding S Kevin Byard, RB D’Andre Swift and Allen. (And what Fields must’ve thought about all of that …)
2. Washington Commanders: QB Jayden Daniels, LSU
As if there was ever a mystery, previous QB1 Sam Howell (traded to Seattle) and QB2 Jacoby Brissett (signed with New England) are gone, leaving journeyman Jake Fromm as the only passer currently on the roster. Daniels, the 2023 Heisman winner, didn’t work out at the league’s scouting combine but will draw scores of eyes at LSU’s pro day next week. He’s already saddled with the unfortunate burden of being compared to two-time NFL MVP Lamar Jackson, which includes concerns about how well (or willing) Daniels will be to protect his slender frame – and D.C. fans can still remember Robert Griffin III’s unrecoverable breakdown near the end of his 2012 Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign. But credit Daniels, whose decision-making (40 TD passes, 4 INTs last season), accuracy, touch and processing speed all seem well ahead of Jackson and RG3 at similar points in their development. And then there is that eye eye-popping ability to run (2,019 yards, 22 TDs over past two seasons) that separates Daniels among his QB peers this year. He could (should?) nicely plug into new OC Kliff Kingsbury’s offense, which got some blocking upgrades in free agency – though the unit could still use a proven left tackle.
3. Minnesota Vikings [PROJECTED TRADE with New England Patriots]: QB Drake Maye, North Carolina
Plenty to unpack here, so pay attention. First, this operates from the assumption the Vikes will make one more trade in the near future in a bid to backfill the loss of a Cousins beyond the short-term signing of Sam Darnold. And while such a move up the board closely approximates…
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