When thinking about who the St. Louis Blues should trade, Pavel Buchnevich probably doesn’t appear on anyone’s list.
Why would he?
Buchnevich is still just 28 years old, and since being acquired in a trade from the New York Rangers in 2021, he has 186 points in 189 games. In the three seasons he’s been in St. Louis, his 0.98 points-per-game average is second only to Robert Thomas (1.02) on the team.
In addition to the stats, Buchnevich is as competitive on the ice and affable off it as any player on the roster, according to his teammates.
So then, why, in the weeks leading up to the NHL trade deadline on March 8, are we hearing his name in trade speculation? Buchnevich has ascended all the way to No. 7 in The Athletic’s latest NHL trade board, up from No. 20 earlier this month.
Here’s why, and here’s what I’m hearing about the Blues, Buchnevich and a potential trade.
A few days after the Blues got Buchnevich in July 2021, they signed him to a four-year, $23.2 million contract ($5.8 million average annual value). He has the rest of this season and 2024-25 remaining on that deal. Per the league’s collective bargaining agreement, the club and Buchnevich can’t discuss an extension until July 1. So even if general manager Doug Armstrong wanted to re-sign him today, he couldn’t.
In the meantime, a lot of developments are taking place in St. Louis and around the NHL.
Are the Blues a playoff team? Will they be buyers, sellers or stand pat at the deadline? What’s the current plan for the retool? Will it turn into a rebuild? How much would Buchnevich cost if they wanted to keep him? Are clubs calling about him? With limited players like him expected to be available at the deadline, how much could he fetch?
Let’s discuss.
The thing to keep in mind in any conversation regarding trade talks involving the Blues is that Armstrong and Blues chairman Tom Stillman have already decided they want the club to remain competitive during the retool. Their reasoning is that fans could not stomach a rebuild that could take five-plus years, and truthfully, ownership may not be able to absorb it financially either.
Moving Buchnevich before this year’s deadline would be a clear sign that the playoffs are not as much of a priority for the Blues as building for the future. And unless he’s unwilling to re-sign, even trading him next season would signal that the team’s blueprint has changed. If you’re not keeping Buchnevich, who would be both difficult and expensive to replace, how do you stay relevant?
So it shouldn’t come as a surprise that, according to a league source, the Blues aren’t actively shopping Buchnevich.
But they are listening, which they’d be foolish not to, considering the current state of the trade market, with very few true difference makers available.
The source said the club would have to be wowed by an offer to even consider it.
However, while Armstrong may be actively looking to part with Buchnevich, another thing to keep in mind is that other clubs are operating as if it’s a possibility. There were scouts on the Blues’ recent road trip to Buffalo, Montreal and Toronto keeping an eye on the winger.
Typically, trades involving players who have term beyond the current season left on their contracts are more common in the offseason. Stanley Cup contenders are seeking to take their shot, and swapping assets for established players allows them to do that. If they’re dealing for someone with another year left, like Buchnevich, teams will get two playoff runs with that player, but the trade is going to be costly. That package would start with a first-round pick and perhaps require two first-rounders.
So there are plenty of reasons why trading Buchnevich may not make sense for the Blues or other clubs, but let’s look at the reasons why it might.
Again, there’s the state of the market. Specifically, there is a shortage of forwards, and specifically wingers, available so far this year going into the…
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