Not every team in the NBA can be in the Western Conference’s top 10. In that realm, every team is fighting for something, or at least to avoid the fate of having to win twice in the Play-In Tournament just to make the playoffs. There will be drama there.
Per Basketball Reference, there are 10 teams — five in each conference — that have worse than a 10 percent chance of making the playoffs. Those teams still have a third or so of their season to play, too. With that in mind, James L. Edwards III (The Athletic’s Detroit Pistons beat writer), Eric Koreen (Toronto Raptors) and Josh Robbins (Washington Wizards) discussed what they are looking for when watching some of the league’s … less urgent games down the stretch.
Koreen: Dear colleagues, dear readers, let me tell you a little story about a team you surely all remember: The 2008-09 Toronto Raptors.
Following two straight playoff appearances, the Raptors had a disappointing season, finishing 33-49. An offseason trade for Jermaine O’Neal was a bust, a move that eventually required the expenditure of another pick to undo. After a loss on March 13, they were 20 games under .500. This was a bad team.
Everyone remembers that Shawn Marion finished that season as a Raptor, adding a bit of wing defence that was helpful to the team. The Raptors ended the season by winning nine of their final 13 games.
Those games were fool’s gold. It didn’t make that much difference in the awesome 2009 NBA Draft — the Raptors ended up with the ninth pick, taking DeMar DeRozan. (Bonus question: Who from that class won NBA Rookie of the Year in 2010? Answer below.) A worse finish would have taken them down to eighth, but they would have had to go 5-8 to fall another spot to seventh in the reverse standings. In that spot, the Golden State Warriors took a smallish combo guard named Stephen Curry.
I believe that finish tricked the Raptors into thinking they were a little better than they were. Had they stumbled to an ugly ending, maybe the Raptors would have looked for a new head coach instead of retaining Jay Triano, and maybe they would have seriously considered trading Chris Bosh going into the final year of his contract. Instead, the Raptors splurged on Hedo Turkoglu in free agency.
With that collection of names, we don’t have to remind people of how that plan worked. (Poorly.) The three teams we cover aren’t going to make the playoffs. With the Raptors having traded OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam, none of them have the pressure of trying to placate a star heading into free agency as those Raptors did. They are in different stages of rebuilding, but they are all in the same vague area.
The Raptors don’t have much recent experience in playing meaningless games, save for the 2020-21 season played in Tampa Bay, which we pretend didn’t happen. To start this conversation off: What do you look for in these games? As importantly: What should be discarded out of hand?
Edwards: I’ve got a lot of experience here, Mr. Koreen. Let me take this one.
Coaches, players and front-office executives will tell you these final games aren’t meaningless. And while that’s not true, there is some merit to it. Teams can build momentum going into the next season — see the bubble Phoenix Suns — and they can evaluate who is worth keeping going forward.
Covering Detroit, I look for individual development. This rebuild isn’t going to work unless at least one of their lottery picks in recent years starts proving to be a top-20 player in this league. Cade Cunningham is the most likely, but can he become a consistent 3-point shooter and continue to limit his turnovers? Ausar Thompson has a lot of what you want in a prospect, but can his shot show any improvements moving forward? Jalen Duren’s upside will be unlocked if he improves defensively. Jaden Ivey needs to turn down the turnovers and become a consistent shooter for his potential to be reached.
All of that is what I’ll be watching. It’s…
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