Ohio got left out from much of the national focus on the 2020 general election, with the former bellwether state won handily a second time by Donald Trump even as he lost the election. And there wasn’t a U.S. Senate race.
However, there will be plenty of attention this November with Ohio as the scene of one of the nation’s most consequential races in the struggle for control of the Senate. Republican nominee Bernie Moreno, coming off an impressive March 19 primary victory, will try to unseat third-term Democrat Sherrod Brown, among the state’s historically most successful politicians.
Some lessons from March and look-aheads to November:
Look-Ahead: Can Ohio be competitive in the presidential race?
Some Democrats and pundits have suggested the high-profile Senate race, likely to bring in record amounts of campaign spending as well as a parade or campaign surrogates into the state, could help tighten Ohio’s presidential race after two straight 8-percentage-point Trump victories. The thinking is that Democratic and independent turnout will be higher because of Brown’s battle, providing an opening for President Joe Biden to at least make Trump spend resources defending the state.
That sounds like wishful thinking to David Niven, a University of Cincinnati political science professor.
“Presidential elections revolved around Ohio for more than 100 years,” he said. “Trump is no Galileo, but since he arrived on the scene Ohio hasn’t spent a single day as a competitive state, much less as the center of the presidential universe.”
Trump’s general election domination of Ohio appears likely to continue, with a half-dozen other states serving as the 2024 battlegrounds.
“It’s unlikely there will be any spillover from the Senate race to the presidential race. Brown will be running to save himself, and Biden will not be running here at all,” Niven said by email.
Lesson: Trump a valuable Ohio campaign surrogate
While a sitting president’s visit would automatically draw extensive (and free) coverage, Trump, former president and current leader in many polls, accomplishes the same. He draws crowds and coverage any time he comes to Ohio and his Dayton-area rally three days before the primary gave Moreno a major late boost.
His endorsement of Moreno two years after he endorsed Senate winner J.D. Vance indicates he has more impact in Ohio than in some other states.
So Moreno has the Trump card to play this fall.
Look-ahead: Republicans try to pin labels on Brown
Brown has long made any list of the most-liberal members of the Senate. And Republicans have taken to lumping him with Bernie Sanders, the Vermont senator who has described himself as “a democratic socialist.”
Moreno, a wealthy business executive, upped the ante on primary night, saying it’s time to retire “the old commie.”
Brown has long been able to rely on his “dignity of work” brand of relating to and defending working-class Ohioans.
“I saw Bernie Moreno call Sherrod Brown an ‘old commie,’ and what I heard was a state campaign,” Niven commented. “It’s just tired, paint-by-numbers rhetoric that doesn’t even serve his purpose. Moreno says ‘commie’ and Brown will say ‘I fight for working people: who do you fight for?'”
Asking voters to choose between his new face and the very familiar Brown could backfire.
“Sherrod Brown is known and respected. Bernie Moreno’s a car dealer with a record of unfair labor practices. It’s not a favorable comparison for Moreno.”
Niven suggested Moreno should run against Washington, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Shumer and Democrats not getting results on issues such as the border.
“Make it about party and that’s a comparison − however hyperbolic − that Moreno could win. Make it about the two people running, and Moreno will be helping Sherrod Brown win a fourth term.”
Lesson: Democrats confident Moreno is vulnerable
In the last days of the Republican primary, TV commercials appeared highlighting Moreno’s support…
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