Quarterbacks will probably be the first four selections, with at least one trade likely within the top four slots. I anticipate six quarterbacks — Caleb Williams, J.J. McCarthy, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, Michael Penix Jr. and Bo Nix — will be selected in the first round, no matter what mock drafts are projecting. The appetite for this QB class will only grow as the players visit team facilities and spend considerable time with coaches, general managers and, most importantly, owners.
At least a quarter of the league’s franchises are preparing for the possibility of grabbing a quarterback in the first round: Chicago, Washington, New England, the New York Giants (and possibly the Jets, depending on whom you speak to), Minnesota, Denver, Las Vegas, New Orleans and perhaps Seattle and the Los Angeles Rams.
“I told you in November there were going to be six [first-rounders]. Everyone is catching up now,” said a longtime evaluator for a team that is looking at quarterbacks. He spoke on the condition of anonymity because he isn’t permitted to speak about the process.
“I can’t tell you exactly what order they’re going to go in after Chicago takes Caleb Williams,” an agent for one surefire first-round QB said, “but they will go one, two, three, four. And once that happens, the other two probably don’t have to wait that long.”
Here’s how I would project the order in which these six quarterbacks will be selected — and what I’m hearing about their potential suitors.
Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears, No. 1 overall
No need to belabor this one. Everyone I spoke with was convinced the Southern California product was the pick, with the Bears’ ham-handed trade of former starter Justin Fields just further confirmation. “He might not be on his own tier, the way a lot of people would have evaluated this class before the season,” said a longtime scout who has watched this class closely, “but he’s the consensus best QB in this class, and I don’t think it’s all that close.” One GM said, “He’s the pick.”
Another GM noted that Bears GM Ryan Poles “isn’t looking to make shock waves here. He’s telling you who he is going to take.”
J.J. McCarthy, Washington Commanders, No. 2 overall
Sometimes the betting markets reveal impeding reality, and I am inclined to believe there is merit to the Michigan QB’s rising odds to go second overall. McCarthy being a top-five pick shouldn’t come as a shock if you’ve been reading along — even with his opportunities limited by Michigan riding its running game — and his maturity, coachability and overall quality are shining through in the staged environment of scripted spring showcases.
When I asked the second evaluator for comparisons for the top four QBs, he said this about McCarthy: “Looks like another [Brock] Purdy to me.” Commanders GM Adam Peters was part of the brain trust that took Purdy in San Francisco, although that was in the final round.
Some also have used Kirk Cousins — whom 49ers Coach Kyle Shanahan drafted and championed in Washington — as a comp. “He’s the kind of point guard who really fits that offense,” the first evaluator said of McCarthy, noting that Peters also was a staunch supporter of trading up for the less-polished but more athletic Trey Lance with the 49ers, a transaction that failed miserably. One agent, who got to…
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