Powerhouse NHL teams are often built on the foundation of star forwards.
This has been true for recent Stanley Cup winners like the Avalanche and Lightning. Vegas’ top line may not have been considered elite for most of last season but Jack Eichel and Jonathan Marchessault feasted when it mattered most in the playoffs. The best teams of the 2010s like the Penguins, Blackhawks, Kings, Bruins and Capitals were powered by some of the game’s best forwards, too.
Of course, there’s way more to team-building than just having a few elite forwards. This isn’t the NBA where one or two superstars are all you need to be a formidable club. A dominant top line is one heck of a start, though.
With that in mind, it’s worth analyzing which first lines around the NHL are producing and which are underperforming this season.
We’ll begin by identifying every team’s No. 1 center as a proxy for the first line and then examine the results when that player is on the ice. There will be exceptions for teams whose top center has moved up and down the lineup, as opposed to staying fixed on the first line, or missed significant time with injury. In that case, we chose a winger to represent his team’s top-line minutes (e.g. Johnny Gaudreau for Columbus, Kirill Kaprizov for Minnesota, Ivan Barbashev for Vegas, Troy Terry for the Ducks, etc.). We’ve also counted Elias Lindholm for the Flames despite his trade to Vancouver last week.
Here are the proxies we used.
To measure performance, we’ll begin by looking at the goals for and against differential when that first line is deployed at five-on-five. As an example, it means we’re looking at how many goals Edmonton scores and how many it allows with Connor McDavid on the ice at even strength. We’re using that as our measure instead of something like points because points can’t account for defense.
Goal differential can sometimes be skewed positively or negatively based on luck and bounces. We’ll be sure to point out where that seems to have made an impact, especially later in the article when we look at other underlying metrics.
Here are the numbers so far this season, sorted by the best goal differential rate. Note: Individual team write-ups are not presented in the exact order of their goal differential. Some teams’ analysis has been saved for the final section of the article.
NHL First Lines’ 5v5 Goal Differential
Florida’s top line with Aleksander Barkov stands out with the best results. Normally, when we think of elite first lines we picture unstoppable offensive chemistry and video-game-like point totals. And sure, while Barkov’s line is dangerous offensively — Sam Reinhart, his most common winger, is having a monster breakout season — what sets them apart is their defensive mastery. Barkov’s line has surrendered just 14 five-on-five goals in 49 games, meaning it takes three and a half games on average to score just one goal against them. These numbers aren’t just propped up by stellar goaltending, as Florida’s top line boasts the best expected goals-against rate of all first lines too. It’s nearly impossible to drive possession, create chances and score against the top of Florida’s lineup.
The Stars have routinely boasted one of the best first lines in the NHL. But it wasn’t until Pete DeBoer decided to replace Joe Pavelski with Wyatt Johnston on the top line that they looked elite — before that, the Matt Duchene-powered second line was the Stars’ best. Since being united seven games ago, the Roope Hintz, Jason Robertson and Johnston trio has driven a jaw-dropping 32-5 edge in high-danger chances while outscoring opponents 9-1.
Vegas Golden Knights
Eichel and Vegas’ first line has carried over its strong momentum from the playoffs. They can score goals in bunches and don’t give up a lot defensively. Eichel has continued his evolution as an excellent two-way center. Marchessault and Mark Stone have split time on the…
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