A midseason mystery has developed this NBA season. Suddenly, scoring is down. Way down.
After spending the bulk of the season at historically high levels, scoring has declined since the beginning of February. Through Jan. 21, teams were averaging 115.6 points per game (just under 231.2 total points per game). That would be the sixth-highest ever, and highest since 1969-70 when the league was playing about 20 possessions per game faster than it is today.
From Feb. 1 to March 17, that had dropped to 112.8 (225.5 points total). Even with the decrease, the league still has the highest points per possession on record (going back to 1972-73 per Basketball-Reference.com) by around 0.7 points/100 as compared to last season, and more than 3.2 points/100 higher than the third-most efficient season — 2020-21.
Still, the decline is doubly unusual because scoring almost always increases as a season progresses, with perhaps a slight dip around the trade deadline and All-Star break:
The main culprit? Free throws, or lack thereof. The average game through Jan. 31 saw the teams combine for 45.6 free-throw attempts/48 minutes. From Feb. 1 through March 17, that rate has declined to 40.1. Assuming those missing free throws would have been converted at league average rates, that directly accounts for close to 1.7 of the 5.7 points per game decline in overall scoring.
To slightly oversimplify, a possession ending in two FTA is worth around 1.6 points compared to a league-average possession being worth just over 1.1.
There has been reporting and rampant speculation about the degree to which league officials have or have not directed officials to alter the way they call games. I’m not able to adjudicate what forces are behind the change; rather, I want to illuminate the facts — which ultimately lead me to suspect that a small change in officiating has had wide-ranging effects on the game.
I should acknowledge up front that the stats are suggestive of a change in officiating but fall short of proof. While I believe there has been an observable difference, I’m reluctant to lean too heavily on that observation, especially considering the change itself has been somewhat small, on the order of one fewer shooting foul per team per game.
Fewer free throws overall
So where has this decline in free-throw attempts occurred? Though there has been a drop in technical free throws of all types — both in the player and of the team/defensive 3-seconds varieties — the vast majority of NBA freebies come from either shooting fouls or team fouls committed while in the bonus.
Both sources have dropped. Through January, NBA games averaged just under 20.5 shooting fouls called/48 minutes. From Feb. 1 to March 17 , this had dropped to just under 18.6/48.
Interestingly, the decline in “bonus” free-throw attempts is even larger on a percentage basis, the league having dropped from around 2.75 bonus foul trips (and thus 5.5 FTA) per 48 to a little more than 2.0 since the start of February. We can start to see some of the knock on effects of a more permissive game flow here, as each team is spending around one minute and 40 seconds less game time with the opponent in the penalty.
But why? Alternative explanations
As noted, the decline in free throws is suggestive in its own right, but there are a number of possible factors that could cause a decline in foul rates, either in whole or at least in part that have little to do with officiating, per se.
One such suggestion is that with noted foul drawers such as Joel Embiid and Trae Young sidelined for extended periods, it is natural we should see fewer fouls being drawn. There is some truth here.
If individual free-throw attempt rates had stayed constant before and after Jan. 31, around 17 percent of the decrease in overall attempts can be attributed to this factor. To put it another way, the NBA as a whole has attempted around 1,600 fewer total free throws…
This article was originally published by a theathletic.com . Read the Original article here. .