On Saturday, the Houston Astros appeared on the verge of dropping to 4-12. They were tied in the seventh inning with the Texas Rangers, a team that had beaten them six straight times at Minute Maid Park, including all four games in the 2023 American League Championship Series. Five Astros starting pitchers were on the injured list. Their bullpen was a mess. If this wasn’t the end of the team’s remarkable run, it sure looked close.
Naturally, the Astros rallied, as they have time and time again while reaching the ALCS in each of the past seven seasons and winning the World Series twice. A seven-run seventh produced a 9-2 victory. On Sunday, the offense erupted for a third straight game without Alex Bregman, who is dealing with an illness. The result was an 8-5 triumph over the Rangers — and a stirring series victory.
By now, we should know not to count out the Astros. Not when they possess four of the best position players in the sport: Bregman, Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker. Not when they rallied from 2 1/2 games back with three to play last season to win their third straight AL West title and sixth in seven years, the only exception coming in the shortened 2020 campaign.
Still, the Astros are 6-11. Their excitement over beating the Rangers the past two days could diminish rapidly in the next three, when they face the Atlanta Braves. All of the innings their starting pitchers threw in recent postseasons, all of the transition the organization underwent this offseason, might finally cause this mini-dynasty to collapse under its weight.
In recent months, The Athletic’s Chandler Rome has chronicled questionable decision-making by the Astros and several growing concerns. Those concerns, since the start of the season, have only grown more acute. The Astros have enough of a track record to warrant the benefit of the doubt. But here’s why their path to an eighth straight ALCS appears increasingly problematic:
It’s difficult to call the addition of one of the game’s best closers a mistake. But at the very least, the Astros’ five-year, $95 million commitment to Hader, coming days after Kendall Graveman underwent season-ending shoulder surgery, was an overreaction.
Worse, the move failed to address the bullpen’s bigger issue: the loss of 207 1/3 innings with Graveman’s injury and the free-agent departures of Hector Neris, Ryne Stanek and Phil Maton. Hader, who prefers to pitch only one inning, won’t eat into much of that deficit.
As good a back end as Bryan Abreu, Ryan Pressly and Hader might be — and each has struggled thus far — their value diminishes when the middle-inning relievers can’t hold leads. Neris, Stanek and Maton will earn a combined $19.25 million in 2024, or just slightly more than Hader. The Astros could have signed other relievers they preferred for less. Or maybe divided the money among two relievers and a starter. They still would have had Abreu and Pressly in the late innings.
Miscalculating the rotation depth
Losing out on free-agent left-hander Blake Snell was defensible — Snell signed a two-year, $62 million deal with the San Francisco Giants, with the second year a player option. Astros senior advisor Reggie Jackson, during an appearance on “The Show” podcast hosted by the New York Post’s Jon Heyman and Joel Sherman, mischaracterized Snell’s injury history but memorably said of Snell’s contract structure, “We don’t play that game.”
Fine, but lefty Jordan Montgomery and righty Michael Lorenzen were still on the open market even after Snell signed on March 18. By that time, the Astros knew they would be down four starters to start the season: Justin Verlander, José Urquidy, Lance McCullers and Luis Garcia. They already were above the luxury-tax threshold, something owner Jim Crane allowed only once previously — in 2020, when payments were suspended…
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