By Shayna Goldman, Sean Gentille and Dom Luszczyszyn
Don’t let anyone say that the late-season chaos in the Eastern Conference didn’t pay off. For the third time in four postseasons, we’re getting a first-round series between Florida’s teams. Isn’t that more fun than Lightning-Rangers and Panthers-Maple Leafs?
The dynamic, though, has changed in the last two years. The Lightning, for the first time in these teams’ playoff history, aren’t the defending champions. The Panthers, meanwhile, have become what might be the league’s most well-rounded team. The end result? We’re guaranteed to see an upset or an official power shift.
The odds
The last two Battles of Florida went decidedly in Tampa Bay’s favor, and those hoping that the third iteration will be a tight battle should probably look away. This series doesn’t look very close on paper with the Lightning wilting since their apex. This isn’t the same team that went to three straight Stanley Cup Finals.
This also isn’t the same Panthers team that was heavily favored in 2022 as the Presidents’ Trophy winner and got humiliated by Tampa Bay in a second-round sweep. This Panthers group is battle-tested after a Stanley Cup Final run last spring. They’re more playoff-proven, with a much better mix.
This will probably be a tighter series than it looks on paper. The Lightning’s deep playoff history obviously isn’t something to take lightly, either. The Panthers are still the significantly stronger team, though. There’s a good reason they hold a heavy edge.
The numbers
The Panthers are such heavy favorites because of the plus-43 difference in Net Rating separating them from the Lightning.
At five-on-five this year, most things Tampa Bay can do, Florida does better. The Panthers challenge their opponents with a ton of high-danger passes and stop their opponents from matching that dynamic puck movement. The Lightning may be above average but fall short of Florida.
After being too reliant on their rush game, Florida coach Paul Maurice has built up the Panthers’ forecheck over the last two years. The team is among the best at recovering pucks and extending zone time. That has made for an offense that can play the game both ways. That’s part of what’s behind Florida’s ability to pour on shots and scoring chances. Tampa Bay is slightly above average in creating shots both ways but doesn’t hold a candle to the Panthers.
Tampa Bay does have the advantage of converting on its chances better than Florida. That was especially true off the rush, where the Lightning have made the most of their chances.
The gaps between these two teams extend to play back in their own zone. The Lightning finished in the top half of the league in shot and expected goal suppression, but Florida is top-five in both. The Panthers’ ability to limit teams off the rush separates them; they’re one of the most aggressive teams with their zone entry denial. Tampa Bay’s also more mistake-prone with its puck retrievals, which can extend time in the defensive zone, and hasn’t always had the goalie support to mask that.
Goaltending has been a real strength for the Lightning when short-handed and that could become a problem for Florida, considering some of their finishing issues on the power play. But the Panthers may be able to counter that with their stout penalty kill if they can slow down the Lightning’s elite power play.
The Big Question
Can Tampa Bay’s defensive depth handle Florida’s deep forward group?
At a few different points during the regular season, the Lightning’s run — as a Cup-caliber team, as a team to be feared, as a team that could make the playoffs without breaking much of a sweat — seemed to be over. At least a third of that sentiment turned out to be premature, but it felt closer than ever to being the truth because of a few different factors. A major one: The Lightning, as a team, were putting up some of their worst defensive numbers in a…
This article was originally published by a theathletic.com . Read the Original article here. .