Whenever a team’s season comes to an end, the first question is often what went wrong and how a team got to this point.
We all know how the Washington Capitals got here. They were the ultimate underdog in the playoffs as the second wild-card seed in the Eastern Conference — a seed earned, in part, to everyone around them stumbling at some point down the stretch. That finish in the standings matched them up against the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Rangers.
Then there was that one little number that has been brought up and beaten to death over the last few weeks: the Capitals’ minus-37 goal differential. It was the sixth-worst mark in the league this season and the worst of any playoff team in the salary cap era. The number may not define a team and only give a glimpse into who the 2023-24 Capitals are, but few with a negative differential make it out of Round 1 in the playoffs.
The strikes against the Capitals added up before the series even started, and mounting injuries to their defense only strained the team even further.
As disappointing as a four-game sweep may be for Washington, a Round 1 exit isn’t too surprising. So the question swirling around the Capitals isn’t how they got here — the overarching question is what this team should do next.
The Capitals’ direction seemed clear at the 2023 trade deadline. Management seemed to recognize the team’s shortcomings and took a proactive approach, despite only being four points out of the second wild-card seed on March 3. Brian MacLellan got to work early, moving out pending unrestricted free agents Garnet Hathaway, Dmitry Orlov, Lars Eller, Marcus Johansson and Erik Gustafsson. In return, Washington replenished its draft capital and brought in Rasmus Sandin.
It was a quick retool on the fly that management could have furthered over the summer, with more assets and cap space at their disposal. But the offseason was relatively quiet, with the biggest change coming behind the bench with an up-and-coming coach Spencer Carbery.
The Capitals’ roster wasn’t nearly as refreshed as it could have been when the puck dropped on the 2023-24 season. But as the year went on and core veterans departed, from Nicklas Backstrom to Evgeny Kuznetsov, more meaningful minutes opened up for the likes of Connor McMichael, Hendrix Lapierre and Aliaksei Protas.
For all their flaws, the Capitals ended the regular season higher than expected with 91 points to land 17th in the league, over a projected 81 points and 25th place finish. The Capitals beat the odds — originally a 7 percent chance — and made the playoffs. Does management try to build off that with some offseason tweaks?
Washington made it to the playoffs this year without a heavy-handed approach last summer or at the deadline. Management could feel that with the right lineup adjustments, there could be some potential around the Capitals’ aging core for one last run — especially now that their up-and-coming players have some seasoning in meaningful games under their belt.
There are two ways to chase that potential: With free agent signings or trades for young talent in need of a new opportunity (similar to that Sandin trade last spring).
The free agency route is tricky. Washington doesn’t project to have a ton of cap space next season, but there aren’t too many openings to fill (unless management moves contracts out). Having an entry-level contract like Ivan Miroshnichenko in a roster spot will buy some flexibility around those other gaps. But most UFAs tend to be toward the end of their prime or outright past it. So getting overzealous too soon can leave the Capitals with a contract that won’t line up with their post-Alex Ovechkin long-term goals. That’s why the latter approach may be the more sustainable path, even if it means spending draft picks to bring that caliber player in.
It’s a direction the Capitals could try to take after making the playoffs. Just because a team can doesn’t mean they…
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