Before the first ballot is cast in New Hampshire’s presidential primary, authorities are already mapping out potential threats to its election – and strategizing how to stop them, according to a new assessment by the New Hampshire Information and Analysis Center (NHIAC).
The confidential analysis, distributed to law enforcement on Jan. 17 and obtained by ABC News, describes an array of possible plots by those who might seek to disturb the first-in-the-nation primary Tuesday.
The document notes there is “no information to indicate any specific, credible threat.” But it underscores that this should not lull law enforcement and government officials into disregarding potential risks – and the grave importance of vigorously troubleshooting would-be attacks in advance.
“The NHIAC remains concerned about threats posed by foreign terrorist organizations, racially motivated violent extremists, domestic violent extremists, homegrown violent extremists, and other nation-state or criminal actors looking to disrupt the US elections,” the bulletin said.
“Numerous attacks and disrupted plots in recent years demonstrate the continued interest” of foreign and domestic extremists to prey on “mass gatherings and other soft targets,” including “symbolic events,” the bulletin said. Few political events are more symbolic than the first primary. And, officials warn, that there are those who “have the ability to disrupt, suppress, or discourage voters from participating” in New Hampshire.
The new analysis comes at the start of the high-stakes presidential election season and during a time of heightened threats of almost every type.
“The 2024 election cycle is occurring at a time when the US is facing one of the most volatile and dangerous threat environments it’s faced since Sept. 11,” said John Cohen, the former intelligence chief at the Department of Homeland Security and now an ABC News contributor. “In today’s threat environment, the lack of credible information regarding a specific plot or attack does not mean the threat is not out there. We know the threat is there.”
A powder keg global environment looms over the 2024 presidential primary, experts say. The 2024 election was already going to be the first presidential race since the end of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Jan. 6 Capitol attack. It is also marked by increasingly toxic political rhetoric, the intermingling of the courtroom and campaign trail as former President Donald Trump faces four criminal trials, and the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine. In addition, hate speech, misinformation and disinformation are running rampant on social media, and rapidly evolving technology remains vulnerable, experts say.
These circumstances present ripe opportunities for adversarial countries who have “aimed to influence US elections in the past by undermining public confidence in the electoral process and exacerbating sociopolitical divisions,” the New Hampshire analysis said.
“The current threat environment rests on the foundation of anger, the polarization that has become all too pervasive in our society. And pervasive in our political discourse as well,” Cohen said. “Election officials need to be prepared to counteract if something occurs – but you can’t wait ’til it happens.”
Some state election officials, including Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, have already been the victim of “swatting” incidents — false reports of an ongoing emergency or threat to prompt an immediate tactical law enforcement response, intended to cause fear and harass — as well as death threats and other harassment.
Public events – especially contentious political ones – offer a “convenient target for anyone already considering violence, or a way to express their grievance,…
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