Quarterback John Wolford just completed his fifth NFL season — his first with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He spent his previous four seasons with the Los Angeles Rams, with whom he was the backup to Jared Goff (2020) and Matthew Stafford (2021-22). While starting at quarterback for Wake Forest from 2014 to 2017, he threw for 8,794 yards (fourth most in school history) and 59 touchdowns (third) while also running for 1,120 yards and 19 TDs.
In this op-ed, Wolford shares his unique insight into how offensive coaches prepare during the week up through execution on game days.
Pundits acclaim the skill of the play callers at the top of their game right now and a good majority come from the Sean McVay/Kyle Shanahan tree. If those two are the trunk, then the branches include Mike McDaniel, Kevin O’Connell, Zac Taylor, brothers Matt and Mike LaFleur, Bobby Slowik, Dave Canales, Shane Waldron, Wes Phillips and others who have impacted the game. Each coach has his own flair and style, but at the minute level, what exactly do these coaches do on a weekly basis to set up their offenses for success? In my eyes, the simplest answer after six years playing pro and being directly involved in this coaching tree, is probability optimization.
I do not think the coaches would phrase it in terms of probabilities, but nonetheless, that is what they are doing. Each play, they are trying to provide the offense with the highest probability of success given the defense.
How do they do this in a week?
Step 1: Analyze tendencies
The offensive coaching staff analyzes the opposing defensive tendencies in the following categories:
• Normal down-and-distance (first-and-10 and second-and-1 to 7).
• Get back on track or GBOT for short (second-and-10-plus).
• Third-and-short.
• Third-and-2 to 4
• Third-and-4 to 6
• Third-and-7 to 10
• Third-and-11-plus
• Red zone
• Two-minute
This data breakdown downloads into the brains of these coaches and allows them to start theorizing how the game will play out.
Step 2: Game theorize
As an example, let’s assume the upcoming opponent plays Cover 3 40 percent of the time, Cover 4 30 percent of the time and Cover 1 20 percent of the time in normal down-and-distance. The previous five games these are the top three calls, therefore the defensive coordinator is likely to utilize similar coverages against us. Run that thought process over and over again for every single subcategory in Step 1. Amalgamate that with a best guess of how they could change it up and you can anticipate what a defensive coordinator will likely play against you.
Step 3: Design plays
Given the anticipated coverages in each subcategory, the next step these coaches do is design plays to attack these anticipated defenses. They utilize core plays from their playbook, wrinkles off core plays and new ones to attack defensive tendencies. They also work to get the ball in their most talented players’ hands against the worst defenders of the opposing team.
An example: Let’s say the San Francisco 49ers are playing the New England Patriots. On third down and 4 to 6 yards, let’s say the Patriots top three coverages are Cover 1, Cover 2 Tampa and Cover 3 Firezone. The 49ers call two plays in the huddle on their first third-and-4 to 6. The first play will be designed to beat man, the second play will be good versus zone coverage, specifically Cover 2 Tampa and Cover 3 Firezone. Pre-snap the 49ers will most likely place a running back or tight end out wide to see if a linebacker or safety walks to cover them. If he does, then they run the man-beating play with the first read being Deebo Samuel. If the corner is over the TE or RB, then they “alert” or “can” or “kill” the play to the zone beater with the first read being Christian McCaffrey. Voila, you run a play that has a higher probability…
This article was originally published by a theathletic.com . Read the Original article here. .