The Stanley Cup contender field is wide open this year.
There isn’t an overwhelming favorite on paper like Colorado in 2022 or Tampa Bay in 2020 or 2021.
“I poke holes in basically every team this year. There’s not one team that emerges as like Yeah, they’re gonna win the Cup,” one NHL executive said.
It makes the 2024 playoffs harder to predict. Fans, media and statistical models are all giving their takes and projections, but what do people inside the league think? We assembled a seven-person anonymous panel including an NHL GM, four additional high-level NHL front office executives, one scout and an agent. We asked each person to sort all 16 playoff teams into a Tier from 1 to 5 and tallied the average votes.
This is how we explained the Cup contender tiers to our panel:
- Tier 1: Stanley Cup favorites (top 3-4 teams)
- Tier 2: Strong Cup contender (High-end contenders just below the inner circle)
- Tier 3: Dark horse (Solid team that could make a deep run if they got hot, but have glaring question marks/concerns)
- Tier 4: Long shot (maybe they can get hot and win a round, but they aren’t realistically contending for the Cup)
- Tier 5: First-round cannon fodder (Should feel lucky just to be in the playoffs)
Let’s dive in.
Tier 1
Carolina Hurricanes
Average rating: 1.1
Carolina received a Tier 1 vote from six of our seven panelists, which tied with Florida for the most of any playoff team. The Hurricanes are a possession powerhouse and own the second-ranked power play and best penalty kill in the NHL. They defend exceptionally well, have a big, mobile blue line and the Jake Guentzel acquisition (25 points in 17 games) has been a slam-dunk.
The agent: “Guentzel’s been unbelievable since he got there. I think he’s changed (Sebastian) Aho’s game and lengthened their lineup. And they have the first- or second-best coach in the league. They’re going to be a real problem. Some people will question the goalie tandem but I think (Pyotr) Kochetkov has been good enough for long enough and (Frederik) Andersen’s been excellent since he came back. He has pedigree and experience too.”
Andersen has pitched a ridiculous .951 save percentage in 10 games since returning from a blood clot issue, and Kochetkov’s been solid, but a couple of the panelists still weren’t fully sold on the Hurricanes’ goaltending.
“Andersen could get hurt tomorrow,” said Executive 1. “How many times has he been hurt in the regular season or playoffs? If they get consistent, healthy goaltending they’re right up there.”
Florida Panthers
Average rating: 1.1
Florida has an elite top nine, a hard-nosed, physical identity that our panelists love, a blue line greater than the sum of its parts and a top-10 ranked power-play and penalty kill.
The GM: “They’re hard, heavy, they can play the game any way.”
The agent: “They’ll be my pick to win the whole thing. They’ve been there before. (Anthony) Stolarz has been unbelievable when he’s gotten games (.927 save percentage) so they’re protected in the event that Bob (Sergei Bobrovsky) struggles or gets hurt. They’re two goalies deep which matters. I saw the Bennett/Tkachuk line play (recently) and they were just unbelievable. They were going crazy with the tenacity, puck play and feeding off each other — I think it’s the scariest second line in the East.”
The Panthers’ sliding form over the last month or so could be a blemish. They lost eight of 10 games from late March to early April. Florida closed the season by winning five of their last six games, but only one of those victories was against a playoff team.
Dallas Stars
Average rating: 1.3
Dallas was the highest-rated Western Conference team, earning five Tier 1 votes, well ahead of the second-best Western club.
The Stars’ forward group is arguably the deepest in the NHL — their “third line” features Wyatt Johnston (32 goals and 65 points), Jamie Benn (60 points) and hot-shot call-up Logan Stankoven (14 points in 24…
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