“Never seen anything like it,” said a high-ranking official with one team that will be selecting a quarterback in the first round. “If anybody tells you they know how this is going to play out, they are full of s—.”
After Caleb Williams goes to the Chicago Bears with the first pick, it seems anything is on the table. Usually by now, there is at least some consensus within NFL front offices about the first 10 picks; this year, not so much. The teams making said picks have done a great job of keeping their intentions quiet. In some order, LSU’s Jayden Daniels, Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy and North Carolina’s Drake Maye will come off the board next, with at least one via trade. (Of the half-dozen decision-makers I spoke with in recent days, all believe the Arizona Cardinals are trading out of the fourth spot.)
“Drake Maye is the biggest wild card in all of this,” said the general manager of a team that has done significant work on quarterbacks. “Some guys love him and think he could end up the best QB in this class, and some legitimately think he’s a mid-round pick.”
Two general managers told me they believe that if the Washington Commanders let the analytics guide them, McCarthy is their guess for the No. 2 pick. If the team’s coaches hold significant sway and offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury’s voice resonates, then Daniels would be the selection. Both general managers also believe Daniels would love to be a Raider.
Meanwhile, the closer we get to the draft, the more people I speak to expect the New England Patriots to keep the third overall pick and use it on a passer — and McCarthy is held in very high regard in New England, from what I gather.
It remains to be seen which team moves up into Arizona’s slot to land the fourth quarterback; the New York Giants, Minnesota Vikings and Las Vegas Raiders, rival executives believe, are the teams most motivated to do so. Executives have also suggested that the quarterback-needy Denver Broncos are exploring options to trade down from the No. 12 pick; whether that’s in hopes that Oregon’s Bo Nix is available later in the draft, or because the Broncos could be punting on passers entirely is open to interpretation. (I have a pet theory about Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders ending up a Bronco at the top of the 2025 draft.) The proximity of the Giants’ selection (sixth overall) to Arizona’s fourth pick has many giving New York the edge in completing that trade.
“They aren’t playing with Daniel Jones, I can tell you that much,” a second GM said of the Giants’ incumbent. “I hear it’s McCarthy or Maye” for New York.
No matter the order, I’m convinced that quarterbacks and offensive linemen will dominate the first round, and particularly the first half of it.
“When you do your mock draft, I’d put six [quarterbacks] in the first 16 [picks],” the first executive said. “They are going to fly off the board, and the offensive linemen, too.”
If the Vikings don’t move up, after already executing one trade, and are stuck at 11, then some figure they will take either Nix or Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. with that pick. The first general manager agreed with that assessment.
“They have to get a quarterback, and they can’t get too cute about it,” he said of the Vikings.
I reported weeks ago that the Raiders were as intent as any team to land a franchise quarterback in this draft, and that hasn’t changed.
Keep on eye on veteran receivers
The trade chatter surrounding disgruntled wide receivers was always going to intensify once offseason programs begin, and now it has. (I would also add…
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