The Atlanta Braves are heading out on their first West Coast trip, which will start with a three-game series against the Seattle Mariners.The Braves enter the series with an MLB-best 19-7 record and have won five straight series after suffering their first and only series loss of the season so far to the Mets. Atlanta just completed a 7-2 homestand with a walk-off win over the Cleveland Guardians on Sunday.
The upcoming series will mark the return of Jarred Kelenic to Seattle. Atlanta acquired Kelenic in an offseason trade along with pitcher Marco Gonzales and Evan White in a deal that was largely a cash dump for the Mariners. Kelenic replaced Eddie Rosario in left field and is currently platooning with Adam Duvall. Through his first 21 games, he’s hitting .305/.369/.373 with no homers and a 112 wRC+. However, he came into Sunday’s game substantially outhitting a weak .299 xwOBA, as he’s struggled to make enough hard contact to compensate for a massive spike in his chase rate.
Ozzie Albies made his return to the Braves’ lineup during the homestand after missing eight games with a fractured toe. Catcher Sean Murphy is still on the Injured List and working his way back from an oblique strain.
The Mariners come into the series playing well having won nine of their last 12 games to take over the lead in the AL West. After failing to win their first five series of the year, they’ve won their last four.
Seattle’s pitching staff will likely enter the series sixth in park-adjusted ERA and fifth in park-adjusted FIP; only the Phillies have a better xFIP when adjusting for park. The superior pitching has really supported an unimpressive offensive performance so far, as the offense is 25th in MLB in runs scored, 21st in wRC+, and 23rd in xwOBA (though that xwOBA isn’t park-adjusted and they play in arguably the worst offensive environment in MLB).
Dominic Canzone, Josh Rojas, and Ty France are the only Mariners with well above average xwOBAs coming into this series, though France is mired in massive underperformance land. Cal Raleigh leads the position players in fWAR, but a chunk of that is xwOBA overperformance. On the pitching end, the trio of Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, and Luis Castillo have been nails, though there are a lot of guys in the soft underbelly of the relief corps that have started out with unexpectedly poor Aprils.
Monday, April 29, 9:40 p.m. ET (Bally Sports South)
Max Fried (2024: 5 GS, 25.1 IP, 16.5 K%, 8.3 BB%, 4.97 ERA, 3.95 FIP)
Max Fried will get the start in Monday’s opener and will look to build off a complete game shutout against the Marlins in his last outing. Fried allowed 10 earned runs over his first five innings of the season. Over his next three starts, he’s allowed four runs combined over 20 1/3 innings. Fried’s only career appearance against the Mariners was in 2022, where he allowed two runs and struck out six over six innings.
Bryce Miller (2024: 5 GS, 28.1 IP, 26.1 K%, 9.9 BB%, 2.22 ERA, 4.57 FIP)
Right-hander Bryce Miller will get the start for the Mariners in Monday’s opener. Miller has made five starts and is coming off his shortest and worst start of the season, where he allowed four hits, four walks, but just two runs over four innings against the Rangers. Despite the short outing, Miller has pitched well and done a good job of limiting damage having allowed just three runs combined over his last 23 1/3 innings. Miller faced the Braves once last season where he allowed three runs over 6 1/3 innings.
Keep an eye on Miller’s new splitter, which has been helping him destroy hitters thanks to how well it pairs with his four-seamer.
Tuesday, April 30, 9:40 p.m. ET (Bally Sports South)
Reynaldo López (2024: 4 GS, 25.0 IP, 26.1 K%, 8.7 BB%, 0.72 ERA, 2.72 FIP)
Reynaldo López will make his fifth start of the season for the Braves in the second game of the series on Tuesday. This will be the first time all season that Lopez has pitched on regular rest. His…
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